Friday, October 27, 2017

When you can only hear one volcano

I can hear Bogoslof. I have no idea how I can prove that I can, as as far as I know nobody else can hear it and I can only describe what I am hearing in terms of a phenomena that others are deaf to.

I have what I presume is tinnitus. But I have no idea how tinnitus can be diagnosed even by a highly qualified doctor, a specialist who is respected and highly qualified -even popular. Unless I tell him and he writes that it is so, on a piece of paper.

Let us take it as read that I have tinnitus and can actually hear Bogoslof, an Aleut volcano that is highly active, for a given specification of active.
I don't wish to bother with further explanations if my word is good enough for you.

What I can hear is a hiss that has got increasingly louder, again for a given specification. It is not loud in the sense that it commands my attention. It is louder in the sense that it is not as quiet as it was a few days back. The noise is still the same -even the tone is still the same,except there is more of it.

(I notice that my ability to find the keys are poorer today. This is a symptom of stroke. My nerve endings are frayed so that my perceptions are not as good as I recall them having once been. But how do I know what I recall with a damaged brain?)

Let us take it as read that I do know what I am talking about. The hiss is getting louder as the amount of steam blowing though the channels of the mountain is greater. When a whistle can first be heard the only attenuation you can describe for it is distance. How can a noise-maker make a noise quietly in a frame of reference that is understandable?

The noise I am hearing is the same noise I was hearing as I became aware of the noise. At first it was on the edge of my limit to hear and now I can hear it as being twice as loud, or half the distance away.
So now you know exactly what I know about tinnitus.

You don't know what I know about volcanoes because you have no reason to. I, on the other hand, have every reason to believe that I know what I am talking about, because I have been studying this stuff for decades and because I am inclined to believe me.

Let me show you my experience with people who think that I am a liar:
uk.sci.weather.

I don't blame them for thinking the way they think. They are wrong for a variety of reason that only I can be sure of for a given impression of certainty, that happens to be my personal certainty.

Where does a conviction become a fact?

My two witnesses is a code for  a religious belief:
New Living Translation
And I will give power to my two witnesses, and they will be clothed in burlap and will prophesy during those 1,260 days." What are we to make of the code assuming we wish to believe it is true.

The code tells us that it will come true in it's own time and that we are not to change any of the code. So are we allowed to declare the meaning of the code or is doing so apostasy?

I am going to go with declaring what I would say if I were a witness.
The Bible comes to us as written in code that may be taken as specific or as generality. This passage is both. The witnesses are two types of witness, secular or expert witnesses and spiritual or heavenly eye-witness. As a secular witness I can attest to the veracity of hearing volcanoes by forecasting them their period and their intensity. But volcanoes are active all the time and there is no way an expert authority can even claim much about something going on under his feet let alone from a distance

All we can do is accept what scientists say but what if that report comes to you from Fake News? 
And what if the reporter is himself a fake scientists. You have to go with the flow, especially when fiery rocks suddenly start to fly. What if the scientist making the report is a religious maniac?

The best thing is to ignore them or him. When things get dangerous, maybe then you could tale another look?
No hurry, you already know what to expect from news, scientist and volcanoes. 

Some of us find all this stuff interesting. And the way people work in most societies is to just go with the flow. It is a good method, tried and trusted, found adequate for centuries. You get to know people in your network that you can come back to find out more from them when and if you need to. But not until then.

And when you do come back to them and they tell you, if you need more you can decide what to do then.

Bogoslof is getting ready to blow. Experience has shown me it may or may not blow alone. This is what I can attest to as regards Bogoslof:

1. At about the same time I became aware of the background noise, I became aware of a pain in my shoulder. A few hours ago, in the dead of night, I realised the sound was louder. I can not attest to the pain in my shoulder. That too is a constant I have grown used to.

This was personal testimony as if I was an eye-witness. By the hissing and shoufder something this way comes before much older. (Excuse the doggerel.)

2. This is me as the expert witness.



First let me reassure you that we are not all going to die; probably some fish and some birds will need to move from a barren island. And some people with tinnitus may be touched by god. I am not trying to make the earth move for anyone. It is OK if you believe I am lying to you. I don't know who you are, why would I care?

Look at the Scandinavian/Siberian Low. As far as we are concerned (I mean I am concerned) I am unconcerned. It is yesterday's news. So are all the fronts from here to Iceland. What concerns me is the Newfoundland Low. This is bringing bad news to me about Bogoslof. Shortly it will take on these characteristics:













And we are back.



But in five days time a lot will have changed because we have had (are going to have) a geo-phenomenal change in the weather







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