Interesting signal for tornadoes in the North Pacific.

There is an interesting development in the North Pacific that I had not noticed until recently. When a front of the kind that signals the approach of a tornado reaches the Gulf of Alaska it is replaced after the event by an anticyclone:

The system develops as a Low passing between two anticyclones. So I suppose it doesn’t explain the occurrence of Blocking Highs since they are already there. But looking at the chart for the 1July at 18:00 the cyclone in the middle of the north Pacific breaks in between the already split anticyclone off the Gulf.

Then the tell tale jellyfish shaped frontal system develops. The analogy of the term Jellyfish-like fronts is appropriate I imagine as the jellyfish we get in Britain in the warm summers come in the same direction. I suppose the same is true with marine life in the Pacific.

Whatever the case, by noon on the 3rd the system has that look. It breaks up a day later so something interesting got in the way on the 4th. On the 5th it has made it to British Columbia and a small anticyclone builds in the Gulf of Alaska.
Another one builds on the  midnight of the 6th at 40 N. 170 E. that has a little more success.

This one is a little more determined and holds its form a lot better getting to the Gulf at Midnight on the 11th. It was linking up to another one back at base camp but something happened midnight on the 12 to upset things.

By noon on the 14th we are back with the flaccid North Pacific oscillation anomaly. However, there appears to be another one in the loop. Check out > Pacific Products > North Pacific Surface Analysis at:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/

Check the “Select Size” tab for 3, 7 or 28 days (they only go back a month so grab them while you can.) If you are using Linux check the Javascript loop.
Here are the charts for the NWS storm reports:




These go back to 2009 more or less. Analysis methods and presentation has changed slightly since 2009, but they are worth collecting -if you can find something to compare them with. Even the Meteorological and Climategate Office supply data going back that far*, I am sure you will find it worth it.

***

Here is a list of earthquakes of Magnitude 5 and over from the same period:

2014/07/15
16:39:03	-4.05	151.42	5.4	M	New Britain Region, P.N.G
10:30:29	-4.14	151.37	5.8	Mb	New Britain, Papua New Gu
09:44:58	-4.12	151.36	5.5	Mb	New Britain, Papua New Gu
2014/07/14
11:24:39	-17.92	-73.42	5.5	Mb	Off coast of Peru
08:40:52	5.78	126.54	5.0	M	Mindanao, Philippines
08:00:00	5.68	126.57	6.3	M	Mindanao, Philippine Isla
07:15:51	36.84	-97.79	4.5	M	Oklahoma
05:44:17	-26.79	-114.68	5.2	Mb	EASTER ISLAND REGION
05:05:04	-8.91	111.25	5.7	Mb	Jawa, Indonesia
2014/07/13
20:54:14	-20.24	-70.36	6.1	M	Near coast of northern Ch
20:00:40	-4.14	151.19	5.6	Mb	New Britain, Papua New Gu
07:18:25	-30.68	-70.22	5.3	Mb	SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
03:16:50	-32.92	-71.45	5.0	Mb	VALPARAISO, CHILE
2014/07/12
18:20:38	-55.45	-28.02	5.2	Mb	SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
17:49:17	-55.38	-28.01	5.5	M	South Sandwich Islands re
03:11:33	-73.9	-1.6	5.8	Mb	Antarctica
2014/07/11
19:22:40	40.35	142.34	6.1	Mb	near the east coast of Ho
19:21:59	37.04	142.42	6.5	M	Off east coast of Honshu,
13:11:47	26.31	125.94	5.0	Mb	NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
04:24:46	-4.67	102.58	5.0	Mb	SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONES
2014/07/10
19:24:44	-7.38	156.25	5.0	Mb	SOLOMON ISLANDS
07:16:17	-19.93	-175.6	5.2	Mb	TONGA
2014/07/09
17:58:11	-62.11	164.9	5.5	Mb	Balleny Islands region
13:35:18	55.3	165.39	5.0	Mb	KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REG
00:01:32	-7.01	104.89	5.1	Mb	SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, IND
2014/07/08
21:52:56	39.46	78.78	5.1	Mb	SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
20:10:04	-3.3	143.29	5.4	Mb	NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINE
12:56:26	-17.62	168.36	6.3	M	Vanuatu Islands
09:05:23	42.68	141.41	5.5	M	Hokkaido, Japan, region
01:23:24	-7.18	129.98	5.0	Mb	KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESI
2014/07/07
23:06:06	23.37	122.4	5.1	Mb	TAIWAN REGION
18:04:37	-5.18	131.67	5.2	Mb	BANDA SEA
11:23:55	14.74	-92.41	6.9	M	Near coast of Chiapas, Me
09:15:29	-7.34	123.74	5.2	Mb	BANDA SEA
2014/07/06
17:08:37	-10.33	-12.74	5.0	Mb	ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
15:37:43	-19.82	-177.79	5.0	Mb	FIJI REGION
2014/07/05
09:39:30	1.99	97.02	6.0	M	Northern Sumatera, Indone
03:34:39	-5.04	154.04	5.0	Mb	BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.
01:18:07	-30.95	-177.7	5.2	Mb	KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEA
2014/07/04
22:42:04	39.67	142.03	5.7	Mb	Near east coast of easter
15:00:26	-6.2	152.82	6.6	M	New Britain, Papua New Gu
13:12:18	-7	155.85	5.6	Mb	Bougainville – Solomon Is
05:34:22	-49.13	-8.2	5.2	Mb	SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RID
2014/07/03
22:30:35	-4.02	139.25	5.1	Mb	PAPUA, INDONESIA
19:50:05	-30.53	-176.53	6.3	M	Kermadec Islands region
19:06:47	52.07	178.46	5.7	M	Rat Islands, Aleutian Isl
12:05:22	55.21	166.92	5.9	M	Komandorsky Islands, Russ
09:35:49	-22.06	-179.45	5.6	Mb	South of Fiji Islands
04:43:42	51.98	178.65	5.2	Mb	RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISL
02:56:41	55.3	166.87	5.8	M	Komandorsky Islands, Russ
2014/07/02
10:02:30	-55.37	-28.42	5.2	Mb	SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
05:53:28	-62.37	154.8	5.4	Mb	BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
2014/07/01
18:14:49	-30.32	-176.9	5.1	Mb	KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
18:11:47	-30.38	-176.94	5.2	Mb	KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
14:22:09	-33.88	-72.39	5.1	Mb	OFFSHORE O’HIGGINS, CHILE
09:11:24	13.9	119.37	5.1	Mb	PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
2014/06/30
20:45:29	-30.17	-177.23	5.3	Mb	KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEA
19:55:32	28.35	138.86	6.2	M	Bonin Islands, Japan, reg
15:44:27	-55.31	-28.25	5.0	Mb	SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
11:37:26	17.74	145.43	5.1	Mb	ALAMAGAN REG, N. MARIANA
11:36:14	-30.02	-177.61	5.2	M	Kermadec Islands, New Zea
01:46:23	0.04	-17.34	5.8	Mb	North of Ascension Island
2014/06/29
18:24:30	-15.36	-175.45	5.6	Mb	Tonga Islands
17:33:56	-55.36	-28.29	5.1	Mb	SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
17:26:09	41.76	46.84	5.1	Mb	CAUCASUS REGION, RUSSIA
17:15:15	-15.11	-175.34	6.8	Mw	TONGA
17:15:08	-15.04	-175.57	6.7	M	Tonga Islands
15:52:22	-14.77	-175.26	6.4	M	Samoa Islands region
14:32:49	-55.39	-28.14	6.0	M	South Sandwich Islands re
14:20:37	-55.38	-28.02	5.8	M	South Sandwich Islands re
12:11:19	-55.34	-28.04	5.1	Mb	SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
09:56:14	-40.7	43.5	5.2	Mb	South Indian Ocean
08:28:58	-55.47	-28.65	5.1	Mb	SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
08:21:12	-55.57	-28.3	5.1	Mb	SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
07:52:56	-55.51	-28.45	6.9	M	South Sandwich Islands re
07:19:26	1.44	126.48	5.0	Mb	MOLUCCA SEA
05:56:31	24.4	142.59	6.2	M	Volcano Islands, Japan, r
04:59:34	32.7	-109.11	5.2	Mw	ARIZONA

http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/eq/latest/index_EN?list=w

***

(*It goes back that far and further but it is not necessarily available from the people who have been paid to derive and submit it to us.)

The Southern Oscillation

I've been looking at ocean cycles and got tangled up in what Wikipedia says. The problem is they are covering their ignorance with spurious explanations. A self evident truth need little explanation.

El Niño is associated with a band of warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the Pacific coast of South America and in air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The warm oceanic phase accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific. The cause is unknown.

The periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually at Winter Solstice. The definition is a warming of at least 0.5 °C averaged over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean.

Half a degree and only at winter solstice in the tropics?

Really?

This anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years. The average period length is five years. Lesser periods of seven to nine months, are classified as El Niño "conditions"; longer periods are classified as El Niño "episodes".

Weakening of the Walker circulation and strengthening of the Hadley circulation occur with a rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia as air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean falls.

Trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east. Warm air Peru, brings to northern Peruvian deserts and warm nutrient-poor water replaces the cold, nutrient-rich Humboldt Current. El Niño episodes cause extensive ocean warming reducing easterly trade winds and the upwelling of cold nutrient-rich deep water.

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index fluctuations in the surface air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

I think these are fairly easy to explain when considering the activity of cyclones near Antarctica, the key to it all.

El Niño episodes are negative values of the SOI with below normal pressure over Tahiti and above normal pressure of Darwin. Low pressure over warm water and high pressure over cold water -the opposite of what actually occurs in the Southern Oceans where anticyclones surrond the eaquatorial regions and deep cyclones fence in Antarctica.

Episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In Non-El Niño conditions, the Walker circulation has easterly trade winds bringing conditions west. Ocean upwelling off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador brings nutrient-rich cold water to the surface. The equatorial West Pacific has warm, wet, low-pressure with typhoons and thunderstorms.

And nobody has linked this seasonality to the AAO?

The ocean is some 24 in higher in the western Pacific and nobody knows why?

Really?

Increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, directly affects South America are stronger than in North America. April–October the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador have major flooding in strong or extreme events and may become critical from February to April.

Southern Brazil and northern Argentina have wetter than normal conditions in spring and early summer. Central Chile receives a mild winter with large rainfall, and the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano is sometimes exposed to unusual winter snowfall events.

Drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of the Amazon River Basin, Colombia, and Central America. US winters, during the El Niño effect, are warmer and drier than average in the North-west to northern mid-east United States, reducing snowfall. Conversely, winters are wetter in north-west Mexico and the south-west United States, including central and southern California, while both cooler and wetter than average winters in north-east Mexico and the south-east United States occur during the El Niño phase of the oscillation....

This part just got silly. What we need is to see some weather charts here.