Ringing ringing raining

Ringing, ringing, raining
Hear my ears complaining
And Bernard Chouet says he did not do it.

Another one for the busy wife and mother:
How do you bite a biscuit into a shape like England and Wales?

Always allowing that north of Carlisle was built on a later time frame (going by the extinct super-volcano in the north of Scotland and the lines of most resistance further south.)

First butter your rice cake (use Welsh salted butter for just the right amount of salt and make a flask of tea as they are so moreish that you will be tempted to eat an whole pack.)

Simply eat around the perimeter, from side to side until you learn how many bites it takes to get the best outline your teeth allow.

Once you have established it is relatively easy to perform the same engineering design repetitively, you must own that there may be a feasible geo-engineering hazard to the weather, volcanoes and earthquakes that will enable you to go macro.

It will turn out that like Australia the initial concept of storm damage causing things in fits and starts must mirror the evidence presented by the patterning of Australia's coastline for which see the essays on Terror Australis.

So now match up whatever presentations fashioned after Lyell et al, you can find what it is that actually tells you how the angels did it:

Lyell's Uniformitarianism vss Catastrophism and Neptunism and finally Weggeners Plate Tectonics:

If I were to submerse myself in reading all that ancient tosh, I would not live to see to what it is that I am capable of deciphering for myself. But these volumes by Hutton and all the revered first experts still exist in mainstream geology as variants to their theories are amended and reworked.

Lyell, following deistic traditions, favoured an indefinitely long age for the earth, despite geological evidence suggesting an old but finite age.

What geological evidence might that be?

Catastrophism held that geological epochs had ended with violent and sudden natural catastrophes. Plants and animals in those parts were killed off and replaced new forms defining geological strata.

A moment's logic dictates that enough of a species would survive elsewhere to reproduce in time for continuing successful reproduction until they could find alternative accommodation.

How dumb can I get?

I thought this was a chart of presently erupting volcanoes, with the energy estimates given as the size of their circles. I already knew that it is impossible to estimate the energy of a volcanoes output at any one time without a lot of study. I have only just realised the chart is the list of advertised volcano tours organised by Volcano Dicovery.

Creation of USA vs Creation of UK

NASA Earth Observatory

Winds Trigger Pond Growth

A satellite image study  shows that wind-driven waves can erode pond banks, lmoviing them in the direction of the wind. The paper, published in April 2017 in Geophysical Research Letters,Wnd-driven erosion nibbles away coastlines and inland on smaller scales.

The researchers analyzed roughly 10,000 satellite images taken between 1982 and 2016, examining land and water pixels to look for inland change across the Mississippi River Delta. Alejandra Ortiz, a marine geologist at Indiana University, Bloomington and colleagues focused on what happens when land becomes subdivided by inland erosion processes.

Ortiz and her co-authors found that ponds in the Mississippi Delta expanded south-west, the same direction as the  north-east winds. In Terrebonne and Barataria basins 80 percent of the ponds are expanding. The other study basin, the Atchafalaya-Vermillion, has nearly as many ponds contracting as expanding—roughly 30 percent.

The false-color image shows the Atchafalaya Delta, captured on December 1, 2016, by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8, emphasize the difference between land and water while allowing viewers to observe waterborne sediment, which is typically absent from false-color imagery.

Illustrateed below are ponds that have grown (blue) or receded (orange) near the delta. In areas like Houma, Louisiana, the size of ponds increased significantly. The Terrebone and Barataria basins have much higher pond density, making them more susceptible to ponds merging.

Some ponds were too small to generate waves strong enough to erode the shoreline. The critical pond width was about 300 meters (nearly 1,000 feet). Ponds that wide offer enough open space for “fetch” (wind induced seiches)to create waves big enough to nibble away the shore.
[How sure can they be that the seiches are not earthquake induced?]

Ortiz said that managers could create physical barriers to prevent ponds from growing. “One possibility is thinking about putting in something that stops wave generation,” she said.

[How about trees?
If that works it indicates that this phenomena is only as old as white colonialism]

    References and Related Reading
    Ortiz, A. et al. (2017) Land loss by pond expansion on the Mississippi River Delta Plain. Geophysical Research Letters 44 (8), 3635–3642.
    Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act (2017) The Terrebonne Basin. Accessed July 5, 2017.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and data from Ortiz, A. C., Roy, S., & Edmonds, D. A. (2017). Story by Pola Lem.

In Britain this has been going on since at least Roman Occupation and subsequent Anglo Saxon eras; offering historians a method of gauging the age of the earth. I like this idea better than anything that geology has to offer as it opens the door for discussion that geologist are blinded to.

Agricultural land in America offers little variety in hundreds of acres. In Britain the top soil type varies often more than once in every field.

Get ready to suck that one, geo-illogical rissole-burgers!

Tomorrows earthquake too

No comment:

This was the day before.

More in the morning when I have slept on it:

Whilst I don't know if swarms can occur with large tropical storms. I do know that large magnitude earthquakes can't; or more exactly don't.


30/07/17 at 03:30 -21.01 -178.68 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 5.0 M.
28/07/17 at 23:01 -20.62 -178.41 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.2 M.
05/07/17 at 21:20 -20.83 -178.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.2 M.
14/07/17 at 03:36 -21.29 -177.93 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.4 M.
09/07/17 at 09:39 -20.52 -177.94 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.1 M.
03/07/17 at 03:20 -20.39 -177.84 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.3 M.
02/07/17 at 15:50 -20.4 -177.76 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.2 M.
21/07/17 at 07:16 -20.04 -177.58 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.6 M.
25/07/17 at 19:23 -22.36 -178.07 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.6 M.
22/07/17 at 18:45 -20.04 -177.51 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.3 M.
14/07/17 at 14:56 -22.96 -178.99 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.4 M.
06/07/17 at 21:20 -19.56 -177.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.o M.
29/07/17 at 23:51 -20.8 -176.32 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.7 M.
13/07/17 at 22:16 -23.27 -179.88 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.1 M.
10/07/17 at 13:39 -23.51 -179.71 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.6 M.
03/07/17 at 00:59 -23.64 -179.46 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.3 M.
26/07/17 at 17:39 -23.69 -179.73 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.6 M.
17/07/17 at 05:51 -23.78 -179.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.3 M.
17/07/17 at 12:08 -18.1 -178.37 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.5 M.
09/07/17 at 13:20 -23.95 -179.7 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.5 M.
02/07/17 at 23:18 -17.88 -178.55 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.5 M.
14/07/17 at 22:21 -17.88 -178.45 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.1 M.
10/07/17 at 14:32 -17.86 -177.99 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.4 M.
10/07/17 at 23:12 -17.59 -178.9 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.3 M.
06/07/17 at 13:46 -24.38 -179.83 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.7 M.
07/07/17 at 20:28 -24.58 -178.78 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.6 M.
25/07/17 at 01:11 -24.14 -176.51 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 5.0 M.
15/07/17 at 13:20 -24.71 -179.95 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 4.7 M.
05/07/17 at 23:29 -20.86 -174.42 TONGA ISLANDS 5.1 M.
19/07/17 at 17:04 -20.84 -174.14 TONGA ISLANDS 4.9 M.
30/06/17 at 12:51 -21.44 -173.91 TONGA ISLANDS 4.9 M.
01/07/17 at 04:53 -21.43 -173.83 TONGA ISLANDS 5.0 M.
16/07/17 at 17:06 -20.44 -173.45 TONGA ISLANDS 5.5 M.
24/07/17 at 03:12 -20.04 -173.51 TONGA ISLANDS 5.0 M.
23/07/17 at 10:01 -17.63 -174.86 TONGA ISLANDS 4.7 M.
17/07/17 at 01:20 -20.37 -173.37 TONGA ISLANDS 5.7 M.
04/07/17 at 23:09 -24.89 -175.17 SOUTH OF TONGA ISLANDS 4.6 M.
08/07/17 at 15:10 -20.1 -173.34 TONGA ISLANDS 4.9 M.
17/07/17 at 03:13 -19.08 -172.96 TONGA ISLANDS REGION 4.6 M.
09/07/17 at 13:49 -14.98 -178.55 FIJI ISLANDS REGION 4.2 M.
16/07/17 at 12:50 -27.22 -177.66 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 4.3 M.
12/07/17 at 23:43 -27.07 -176.38 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 4.8 M.
10/07/17 at 15:08 -27.05 -176.27 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 4.4 M.
10/07/17 at 13:11 -27.07 -176.33 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 4.3 M.
19/07/17 at 17:11 -17.57 -172.9 TONGA ISLANDS REGION 5.2 M.
29/07/17 at 11:42 -27.48 -177.78 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 4.6 M.
02/07/17 at 09:58 -27.36 -176.45 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 5.7 M.
14/07/17 at 00:57 -27.24 -175.99 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 5.1 M.
21/07/17 at 09:15 -16.46 -173.41 TONGA ISLANDS 4.8 M.
02/07/17 at 12:40 -27.43 -176.22 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 5.4 M.
01/07/17 at 22:26 -16.09 -172.99 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION 4.6 M.
01/07/17 at 17:31 -28.55 -178.66 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 4.2 M.
30/07/17 at 01:56 -15.47 -173.19 TONGA ISLANDS 4.5 M.
02/07/17 at 09:32 -15.13 -173.11 TONGA ISLANDS 4.5 M.
30/06/17 at 22:33 -14.81 -173.3 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION 4.4 M.
03/07/17 at 15:14 -29.96 -177.49 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND 4.4 M.
05/07/17 at 04:45 -30.22 -177.73 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND 4.9 M.
08/07/17 at 12:04 -30.2 -176.73 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 4.5 M.
01/07/17 at 02:41 -30.31 -177.58 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND 4.5 M.
24/07/17 at 00:34 -30.8 -178.54 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND 4.8 M.

Cyclosis occurs immediately a storm reaches peak strength. That is cyclogenesis stops and the constituent parts dissolve. You can see it with tornadoes viat teleconnections to the North Atlantic:

A Low pressure system must occur off Newfoundland and cross the North Atlantic Ridge gaining 5 millibars in the process, The Low has to pass between two aanticyclones. One of which is generally in Greenland and the other is to the south-east of the North Atlantic.

After which the cold front separates from the occlusion. Generally all that will be left of the warm front are a pair or three parallel fronts that signal the development of a a swarm of earthquakes. These phenomena occur planet-wide but most of the quakes are too small to be listed on international lists.

There will always be a main event that is not possible to ignore. Such a case is with the above list when the series of Tropical Stoms deflates. Such will be the case as Cyclone Noru comes apart:

30 Jul, 18:00 0 hrs 22.8 N 140.9 E 140 kts 5

1 Jul, 6:00 12 hrs 23.1 N 139.9 E 145 kts 5 To 12 hrs To 12 hrs

31 Jul, 18:00 24 hrs 23.5 N 139.1 E 140 kts 5 To 24 hrs To 24 hrs

1 Aug, 6:00 36 hrs 24.2 N 138.6 E 130 kts 4 To 36 hrs To 36 hrs

1 Aug, 18:00 48 hrs 25.0 N 138.5 E 125 kts 4 To 48 hrs To 48 hrs

2 Aug, 18:00 72 hrs 26.4 N 138.5 E 120 kts 4 To 72 hrs To 72 hrs

3 Aug, 18:00 96 hrs 27.4 N 138.5 E 120 kts 4 To 96 hrs To 96 hrs

4 Aug, 18:00 120 hrs 28.5 N 138.2 E 115 kts 4 To 120 hrs To 120 hrs

Would you believe that I can't recall if the devolution occurs Beaufort Number by Beaufort Number. To be honest I can't even remember if the teleconnected storm loses or gains 5 millibars in the journey to destruction.
(Look it up, I have explained the formula in many forums.)

All that is necessary to remember is that god gives his people fair warning as well as help in making their way out of every situation not just geo-phenomena. For the reason salvation come from HWYH I never ask for money and do all this for free. (Also I shun any publicity from it all, just in case.) This is the only reason I can give for him putting up with me.

As his son our King said:"You receive free, give freely"
In return I get one hell of kick out of being right:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hZwn12swvt4xrU3T4HUjP8SNVKGKvD3x7UM5j8hMJZM/edit?usp=sharing

Tomorrow's earthquake

Tomorrow's earthquake or not, as the case may be. It doesn't look lik an earthquake but then, what do I know?

I know where it came from and what a volcano looks like:

These were from the forecast for the 27th July 2017.

And they developed into these on the 29th of July 2017:

Ordinarily under the lore of the earthquake phase of a cycle in the Southern Ocean the demise of a cyclone usually occurs with the one to cause a magnitude <7 or greater presenting a perpendicular path and dispersing on contact with the shore.

If this cyclone (at 40 to 60 East) is the equivalent, it's demise occurs sometime around the t+60 chart where it merges with the signal for a volcanic eruption.

 The signal for a volcanic eruption of significant energy (a VEI of 3 or 4)

 comprises a cyclonic system going ashore on Antarctica

 and separating into the component eys of the three or more systems that it is composed of.

The one at 110 to 120 East, say.

 Yes... it looks like. However it doesn not appear to be a full blown magnitude 7+; how may eyes does the cyclone at 80 to 100 east have?

I think we are looking at a swarm warning for a volcano at 60 degrees East.

And now the transformation has taken place:

Not that I understand everything about anything, so to speak.

But at least we arrive on the correct date!
That's something.

***

So what happened?
And why are we still waiting?
I don't know. This is Tuesday 1 August even if this comes off with a bang:

I am still a day late and my forecast was an earthquake or volcanic eruption short.
There is nothing I can say about being a day out. I can not turn back time but if you look at the forecast chart for the NA-EFS you will see it is from the 31st July 2017. Some time after I gave mu forecast for this event.

Now look at the line of Lows running from south-west to north-east. There are four of them in a line and they conitinued from the previous day  as a forecast. If they are of a volcanic eruption or of an earthquake I can not say

They have not happened yet nor has the line running in the opposite direction occurred. The low off California never happened nor is it likely to as those cclones look to be heading on a NWly course. But the rest of the line seems to be three ill-defined earthquake signals, if I know anything -which I wouldn't balme you for doubting.

Now my eyes are fading and I need a break from the disputer. I can't see to spellcheck
Just because I am self assured I can't and don't expect anyone to think this is not overconfidence.

Maybe I should have allowed for a magma chamber build-up?
But if I do that then I can not forecast eruptions using the method I made the last one with. I match charts with actual geo-forecasts not "potentia"l in magma chambers.

So what is going on?

Follow the isobars around the southern ocean. They go from streamlines to non streamlines (what is the technical term of turbid when they happen to be cyclones as big as some countries?)

Voila:

If such parallel lines were sea fog they would blanket the coast of Antarctica before breaking up into patchy mist like this:

But even then, it is still foggy right?

Fails of fire and ice

Nothing much is happening here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/170726_rpts.html
or here:
http://weather.unisys.com/sat_sfc_map_loop.php too, neither!

That doesn't mean nothing nor nothing is happening. It just means the angels are playing away.
So how do we find out where?

Snow snow quick quick snow:

Reports of frolicking polar bears and roads just opened in California may be misleading but at least New Zealand is giving fair warning.

A road in California has only just reopened to traffic after the winter because it took so long for the snow to be cleared. And snow has been donated by the Ruka ski center, Finland to help cool down polar bears, suffering in unusual temperatures of 75 degrees Fahrenheit.

So I moved on to South America where cold news was old news in Chile's coldest winter in a decade. And on to New Zealand bracing for wet and wild end to the week as two storms ...

But that was then.
This is now:

It would seem that I have missed it all, not that it was all that much -outside of Chile and the volcano in Guatemala, that is.
Ah well, I have taken the butter out of the freezer. I think I'll go back to bed. (I'm cold enough to sleep now.)

The Hawaiian charts are back on form and the largest earthquake in a day or so is only a minor one. Apart from the line of lows not yet in the tropics I won't miss much...
... will I?

Just Saying

I don't go out much these days. I must appear agoraphobic. The fact is I am just lazy. Slipping into an eay decline is interesting in itself. Have I got no life or has no life got me. My problem is I have no interests outside that of being right. I suppose I never have.

It makes drawing conclusions easy if they are wrong conclusions and getting over them difficult if they are important ones.

I stop looking at the charts for answers for one thing. Then when a natural phenomenon takes place that catches me out I am usurped and thrown down. And disappointment is difficult to shrug off if the cause is your own fault. Because you can't blame anyne that you prefer to be angry with.

So what happened?
All this week there have been some pretty large volcanic eruptions. A spell taken at its crest will carry you along with it and it is one hell of a ride. But waiting for it to passyou by samps the euphoria

Yesterday the rain-clouds turned yellow the sodding grey all went away without my seeing it off. My problem is that I had no explanation for it. I didn't even get out of my chair to take a look.

This is all I had to say about it:

"Sabancaya volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: STRONG PUFF EMISSIONS OF VA

How serious does that sound?
Would you believe it has rained all day here, the strong drizzle that approaches real rain without doing so.

What's missing in the picture?
Sequences from the 30th from the Mauna Kea Observatory, to start with:

http://mkwc2.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/modelsanim.cgi?model=gfs&domain=npac&param=winds&orient=horiz&level=sfc&modeltime=2017072812&gfsanimduration=180&banner=mkwc&imgsize=med&animtype=flash

To be fair that is all I have but it seems a biggish all."

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-GB#!topic/sci.geo.earthquakes/5JDLi7QrjkM What a turkey. A small thing but mine own but not!

One of the poet Pindar's odes of victory says it better:

Creatures for a day! 

What is a man?
What is he not? 

A dream of a shadow is our mortal being but when there comes to men a gleam of splendour given of heaven, then rests on them a light of glory and blessed are their days.

Or as Cowly put it:

I NEVER had any other desire so strong, and so like to covetousness, as that one which I have had always, that I might be master at last of a small house and large garden, with very moderate conveniences joined to them, and there dedicate the remainder of my life only to the culture of them, and study of nature.
And there (with no design beyond my wall), whole and entire to lie in no inactive ease and no unglorious poverty.

But several accidents of my ill fortune have disappointed me hitherto, and do still, of that felicity; for though I have made the first and hardest step to it, by abandoning all ambitions and hopes in this world, and by retiring from the noise of all business and almost company, yet I stick still in the inn of a hired house and garden, among weeds and rubbish; and without that pleasantest work of human industry, the improvement of something which we call (not very properly, but yet we call) our own.

I account my affections and endeavours well rewarded by something that I have met with by the by: which is, that they [may yet] procure some part in your kindness and esteem.

Abraham Cowley (1618–1667) From the essay: The Garden

But what is glory but Anyman's story that can be had for the price of looking and seeing and telling.

And does it all disappear at the last trumpet with no sound and no fury signifying nothing:

Qietus

Inchoate?

I think not.

This will do your head in

This will do your head in, it's done mine. It will be weeks before I can think of anything else:

I was thinking was the term smoothness and wondered if it had anything to do with Navier Stokes' Equations. I'm buggered if I know even now.

Especially now!

I had noticed these regions of calm between polar (rotating) air masses some time ago. What I made of them is that they seemed to appear prior to earthquakes(?)

I am not sure I recall what I associated them with but they appear on the Met Office chart of the North Atlantic from time to time and I remember taking an interest in them.

I believe I concluded that if the significant frontal system connected two polar masses then the phenomenon likely generated along such a line would be aerial.

If they landed or started from outside a polar point then (I believe that I thought) it would portend a large earthquake. I had no idea at that time what the meteorological signals for volcanic eruptions were, thus I am confident this must have been my line of thought.

The circle in the above chart is the centre between two polar points (rotating air masses.) They differ from cols in that a col is surrounded by alternating polar points of Cyclonic and Anticyclonic air masses. Both phenomena look something like this:

There is an identical one, some way south of the other dual in the series. And the set-up has continued since I first started collecting screen grabs of them from nullschool a few days ago. These are from today, the 25th of July 2017:

 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-197.66,25.37,476

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-112.41,9.87,476

When a cyclone rubs up against a shore the result is a triangle with the apex along the landward (less fluid?) side. 

When the outflow can run to sea the result is a line of calm air, no doubt due to the heat content of the salt fall out being carried off by the ocean current.

Any plethora of highs and Lows is indicative of a volcanic explosion if it all appears overnight:

Especially if there are lots of not very high Highs. You can look up "North Atlantic Oscillation" for all the good it will do you.

But it would be more productive to attempt finding more charts showing the track to the source of these weather fronts in the south-east. (Or you could try forwarding to here from Guatemala.)

Hell, what do I know?
I'm just an armchair philosopher:

Worldwide Volcano News and Updates:
(Jul 2017) | Jun 2017 | May 2017 | archive

Volcanoes Today, 27 Jul 2017: Karymsky volcano, Dukono, Sinabung

Thu, 27 Jul 2017, 02:00

Karymsky volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: VA AT 20170727/0105Z FL330 EXTD NE MOV 30KT REPORTED

Thu, 27 Jul 2017, 01:45

Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: more  Karymsky volcano

Sinabung volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: VA OBS TO FL130 MOV NE OBS VA DTG: 26/2320Z

Wed, 26 Jul 2017, 23:15

Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: more Sinabung volcano

Dukono volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: CONTINUOUS VA EMISSIONS TO FL090 EXT W OBS VA DTG: 26/2230Z

Monday's eruption

I have a poor track record with predicting eruptions. At the moment I am working on the development of troughs in Antarctica and possibly, the extents of their ellipsis.

Whatever the case, the isobars surrounding Antarctica go from discrete cyclonic systems to one overall connected wall of equal pressure when the sky has become flooded with supercooled water in the tropopause:

The amount of pointing is minimal but something at60 degrees East indicates Reunion may be involved.

It goes from these multi cored but separate systems:

Wait, is that core at 80 East pointing to Mt Erebus?
Or the ice-sheet on the Weddell Sea?

All the pointing on the Australian charts seems to be introvert.

So Reunion on the 29th?

I shall stop now:

So what volcanoes are active at 120/130 West?