Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Saxby Storms and Wiggins' failure to forecast Krakatau

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/THD18830307.2.23

Reproducing material from Papers Past

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https://youtu.be/15OyN9MNehs

ECLIPSES.

In the year 1883 there will be two eclipses of the sun and two of
the moon.

A partial eclipse of the moon; April 22nd First contact, jh.
51m. a.m.

A total eclipse of the sun, May 6th, invisible in Canada.

Partial eclipse of the moon, Oct, i6th.

Annular eclipse of the sun, Oct. 30th, visible in British Columbia.

Saturn will be morning star to May 20th, afterwards evening star.

Jupiter will be morning stajr to July 5th, afterwards evening star.

Venus will be morning star till Sept. 20th, afterwards evening
staf-

Storms Classified. :

In the following calendar only continental storms arc 'ecorded?
or those which extend over the Western Hemisphere.

Those of the first, second, and third classes are dangerous to
seamen.

1ST Class. — The heaviest of all storms that visit our continent,
or in fact the world, as those of Oct., 1869, and March gth-iith,
1883. They are always preceded by tremendous tides, and fre-
cjuently tidal waves in some part of the world. In America, south
of the 45th parallel, they always run from the south-east gradually
veering to the westward. On nearing the Rocky Mountains they
are thrown northward and eastward, when the atmosphere over the
whole continent becomes a »ast whirlpool. Along the groove in
which lie the great Canadian lakes they blow from the west, and few
vessels on those inland seas are able to weather the fury of these
tempests.

2ND Class. — Those produced by planetary action of less intensity
than that -which creates first-class, or great storms. The storm of
Sept. 14th, 1882, that of Feb. 9th, 1883, also the destructive hurri-
cane of Oct. loth, i7$o, are examples. Their direction vanes with
the changing direction of the planetary force which produces them.
The path of the great March storm will be greatly similar lo that of
September last.

3RD Class. — Those of less strength and swiftness than ;:econd-
class storms, but as they are liable to focus on some centre, they are
very dangerous, as that of October last, which was so destructive in
the Philippine Islands, where thirty thousand people were rendered
homeless. The storm of Dec. 13th, 1882, so disastrous to New-
foundland ; also the storm of Jan. lothj 1883, are examples.

4TH Class and 5TH Class. — These are also of vast extent, but
are the seaman's friends, as they speed him on his way.

No secondtclassijtorm in 1883 after March 1 6th.

THE GRE4T MARCH STORM.

On the 22nd of Sept., 1882, 1 made the following announcement
in the Ottawa Citizen : —

Agreatstdrm will strike this planet on the 9th of March next.
It will first be fell in the Northern Pacific and will cross the meridian
of Ottawa at noon (5 oMock London time) of Sunday, March nth,
1883. No vessel smaller than a Cunarder will be able to live in this
tempest. India, the south of Europe, England, and especially the
North American continent will be the theatre of its ravages. As all
the low lands on the Atlantic will be submerged, I advise ship-build-
ers to place their prospective \essels' high up on the stocks, and
farmers havinj? loose valuables as hay, cattle etc., to remove them to
a place of safety. I beg further most respectfully to appeal to the
Honorable the Minister of Marine, that he will peremptorily order
up the storm signals on all the Canadian coast not later than the 20th
February, and thus permit no vessel to leave harbor. If this is not
done hundreds of lives will be lost and millions worth of property
destroyed.

Accordir.-Iy on the i6th of October I wrote to the Honorable
the Minister of Marine, asking him to order up the storm signals to
protect seamen from the March storm, aid said that tc prove the
truth of my prediction I would narr.e two heavy storms that would
precede it in the winter of 1883, one to b^in the loth of January
and the second the 9th of February. The first named I did not make
public in Canada,though reported in the New York press.as it would
be mainly a South American storm, in which the forces would not
extend beyond the 45th parallel of north latitude, so that only the
reflection of the storm from the Rocky Mountains would be felt in
the Dominion, though I pointed out that it would be followed by a
general snow-fail throughout North Americ^. This storm came
exactly as predicted, passing over the New Ertgland States,over New
York, Washington and Minnesota (in which it appeared as an im-
mense blizzard), and in fact all the states south of the 45th parallel on
the very day named, viz., 10th January. In the United States and
Canada it continued for ten days, and was one of the heaviest
snow-falls ever known. The atmosphere over the entire continent
was thrown in an immense whirlpool. The storm of February will
be even more violent, as it will be specially a storm of the Northern
hemisphere and will be of six days' duration, ending — in the greatest
WIGGINS' STORM HERALD.

probability — dn a general rain. In eastern Canada the wind will
blow from the north-east. The direction of the March storm will
greatly resemble that of January both in direction and coldness.

Being unwilling to bear the responsibility of treating my letter
v/ith contempt, the Honorable Minister submitted it to Charles
Carpmael, Esq., chief signal officer of Canada, and asked his opinion.
Mr. Carpmael replied at length and said, *' We have no reason to
anticipate any violent disturbance between the 9th and iiihof
March," and " Mr. Wiggins' letter is perfectly absurd" So say Mr.
Vennor and General Hazen.

I have never once predicted a siorm that did not arrive within a
tew hours of the time named, and the following, which I accurately
foretold months before they occurred, should be sufficient to establish
my reputation, viz., the storm which began in the Atlantic ocean,
June 2Sth, 1881 and blew from the south-east— the direction I had
pointed out — over the continent; the storm of Sept. 13th, 1882, in
which the Asia and H. M. S. Phoenix were lost ; the storm of Dec.
'13th, 1882 (foretold in the Ottawa Citizen in July last), so disastrous
in Newfoundland, and the st vm of the loth Jan., 1883. The great
storm of February and the greater one of March will satisfy the public
that my predictions art founded in the physical and immutable laws .
tiiat govern this and ether worlds.

LETTER TO PRESIDENT ARTHUR.

Ottawa, Nov. 27, 1882.

To His Excellency President Arthur^ President of the United States,
W^ishington :

'•Ma\ it Please Your Excellency: — On the 23rd of Sep-
tember last I announced through the Canadian press that a great
storm would occur in March next ; that it would first be felt in the
Northern Pacific, would appear in the Gulf of Mexico on the night
of the 9th, and. being reflected by the Rocky Mountains, would cross
this meridian from the west at noon of Sunday, March nth, 1883.
Nc vessel, whatever her dimensions, will be safe oat of harbor, and
none of small tonnage can hope to survive the tidal wave and fury
of this tempest. As the wind will blow from the south-east, the
planetary force will be sufficient to submerge the low lands of
the American coast, especially those bordering. on the Gulf of
Mexico, and washed by the Gulf stream, while the air currents
for several hundred miles along the east i'ide of the Rocky Moun-
WIGGINS' STORM HERALD.

tain range, owing to the great atmospheric pressure in those
regions, will spread universal destruction. The New England States
will also suffer severely from the wind and floods. No point out-
side of harbor, in the whole area of the Atlantic, especially north of
the equator, will be a place of safety, for this will be pre-eminently
the greatest storm that has visited this continent since the days of
your illustrious first President. In view of this event, therefore, I
take the great liberty of representing to Your Excellency the advisa
bility of ordering all United States ships into safe harbors not later
than the 5th of March till this storm shall have passed."

THE PRESIDENT'S REPLY.

"Executive Mansion, Washington, Dec. 2, 1882.
"My dear sir: — The Pi esident directs me to acknowledge the
receipt of your letter of the 27th ultimo, and to thank you for givmg
him the benefit of your predictions which will be brought to the
attention of the proper officers of the government."

Very truly yoj^'^'s*
E. Stone Wiggins, LL.D. Fred J. Phillips,

Astronomer, Private Secretary.

Ottawa, Canada. * Bfwou

The President submitted this lett.^i;|9 General W. B. Hazen,
Chief Signnl officer at Washington, wKoise report, as it appeared in
the Neiv York Tribune/i^ as follows :

THE WIGGINS' STORM.

{From the Ottawa Citizen.)

"1^'C

A METEOROLOGISTS VIEWS. .

As great interest has been manifested in the prediction by Dr.
Wiggins, of this city, of a great storm ia March, we comply with a
request to publish the following letter of General Hazen, Chief United
States Signal Officer at Washington, wh»ch was referred to in a des-
patch published in the Citizen of Saturday last. The subject is a
scientific one, and as such it should be discussed.

II
WIGGINS STORM HERALD.

THE STORM PREDICTED FOR MARCH.

WHAT THE CHIEF SIGNAL OFFICER SAYS. '

To the Editor of the Tribune,

Sir, — On the 27th of November, 1882, Mr. E. Stone Wiggins, of
Ottawa, Canada, addressed a letter to the President of the United
States, which read as follows :

On the 23rd of September I announced through the Canadian
press that a great storm would occrfr in March next, that it would
first be felt in the Northern Pacific, would appear in the Gulf of
Mexico on the night of the 9th, and — being reflected by the Rocky
Mountains — would cross this meridian from the west at noon of
Sunday, March 11 1883.

No vess 1, whatever her dimensions, will be safe out of harbor, and
none of small tonnage can hope to survive the tidal wave and fury
of this tempest. As the wind will blow from the south-east, the
planetary force will be sufficient to submerge the low lands of the
American coast especially those bordering on the Gulf of Mexico and
washed by the Gulf Stream, while the air currents for several hundred
miles slong the east side of the Rocky Mountain range, owing to the
great atmospheric pressure in those regions, will spread universal
destruction. The New England States will also suffer severely from
the winds and floods. No point outside of harbor in the whole area
of the Atlantic — especially north of the equator — will be a place of
safety ; for this will be pre-eminently the greatest storm that has
visited this continent since the days of your illustrious firsl President.

In view of this event, therefore, I take the great liberty of repre-
senting tc your Excellency the advisability of ordering all United
States ships into safe harbors not later than the 5th of March, till
this storm shall have passed.

I have the honor to be, etc.,

E. Stone Wiggins, LL.D.,

Astronomer.

This letter, which has been widely disseminated by the press of
the country, might well receive no official notice but for the fact
that many people, who have no facilities for judging of the value of
such a prediction, are disposed to give it credence. There are
always some to be found who will put confidence in the wildest
speculations of those who profess to foretell future events, and it
requires only boldness in making a predic^on and a tone of authority

V

13
i-

!S

If

in delivering the message to enable the prophet to gain listeners.
The number of followers, however, will surely diminish in propor-
tion as the people are instructed in the fallacies which underlie these
predictions. In the example afforded by Mr. Wiggins' letter the
following may be pointed out. .

1. No storm track has ever been observed which moved in the
track indicated by the words * first be felt in ?the Northern Pacific,
will appear in the Gulf of Mexico on the night of the 9th, and —
being reflected by the Rocky Mountains — will cross this meridian
(Ottawa) from the west at noon of Sunday, March II, 1883." The
Rocky Mountains do not possess the power of ''reflecting " a storm
though they may modify its course, and it is difficult to understand
how a storm can proceed from the Pacific to Canada via the Gulf of
Mexico and suffer any reflection whatever from the Rocky Moun-
tains. There are two distinct classes of storms which traverse this
country in the north-west (some of which can be traced from the
Pacific across the mountains), and more easterly or south-easterly to
the Atlantic, and the other which enters the country in the Gulf
States and more north-easterly along the coast. It sometimes,
though rarely, happens two storms, one of each class, unite in their
course, which may give a slight semblance of truth to such a
description as that given below, but it should be distinctly noted
that the words quoted will not stand a critical examination. The
same may be said of the sentence which alludes to the " planetary
force" causing a submersion of low lands, and the air currents on the
east of the Rocky Mountains spreading universal destruction.
Should a severe storm area cross the country in a easterly direction
from the Rocky Mountains, strong south-east winds will blow towards
the storm-centre in advance of it and strong north-west winds will
follow it, according to i well-established law of rotation of the winds
in the vicinity of a area of low barometer. This is all that can be
truthful in the sentence under discussion. There is no "great
atmospheric pressure " in the region of the Rocky Mountains, ex-
cept that an area of high pressure may temporarily prevail there, and
the words *' planetary force " belong to the vocabulary of astrology
and mediaeval superstition upon which modern science cannot be
tbo severe.

2. It .is absolutely impossible to predict a storm for more than a
few days in advance. The information cannot be too widely dis-
tributed that no one can foretell even the general character of a
coming season, much less the occurrence of a particular storm in
that season. It is possible that the advance of our knowledge may
at somd'time enable us to predict the weather for many days in ad-

15
WIGGINS' STORM HERALD.

vance, but this is not possible at the present time. Meteorology is
yet in its infancy, and no one is yet able to anticipate the occurrence
of a meteorological phenomenon for more than a few days — a week
at the most. If any one will take the trouble to verify the weather
predictions which in these days are so frequently made, by the ac-
tual weather experienced, he will find that about half of them are
fulfilled and half fail. When a given prediction is fulfilled it is of-
ten made a matter of marked comment, while the unfulfilment of a
similar prediction at another time is passed over in silence. The
impression, therefore, prevails that reliance can be placed upon the
forecastings of weather prophets, but this impression will be removed
by any one who will give »*ttention to the subject. A series of sim-
ple guesses, based upon no reasoning whatever, will come true in
the long run as many times as they will fail. Until, then, weather
predictions are fulfilled more times than the^ fail, they must be re-
garded as equivalent to guesses and as having no value whatever.
All predictions of the weather to be expected a month or more in
advance, whether based upon the position of the planets, or of the
moon, or upon the number of sun spots, or upon any supposed law
of periodicity of natural phenomena, or upon any hypothesis what-
ever which to-day has its advocates, are as unreliable as predictions
of the time when the end of the world shall come.

There is a difficulty in refuting the assertions of those who pre-
tend to foretell the weather since their predictions frequently relate
to occurrences which are almost sure to prove in part as foretold.
Thus the prediction of early snow in August or September is a very
safe one to make, if one claims the right to test it by the weather
reported in any one town in the North-western States or Territories
or adjacent British territory. Similarly the prediction of a storm in
March is quite certain to be fulfilled. During the past ten years
the number of storms which prevailed in thib country in March has
averaged twelve, varying from ten in i88r and 1882 to eighteen in
1879. Some of these have been very severe, and it rarely happens
that the month of March passes in any year without the occurrence
of one or more storms accompanied by high winds upon the Atlan-
tic coast. Undoubtedly in March, 1883, there will be storms of
some severity, and some persons will be found who will notice the
storm which comes nearest to March 1 1 and claim that Mr. Wiggins'
prediction was verified, only that it was a day late, or a day early, or
was not quite as severe as anticipated, or moved in a slightly differ-
ent path, or in some other way differed in detail from that described,
but that it was sufficiently near to entitle the author to a high rank
as a prophet. I^t no one expect his prediction to be fulfilled in the

B

17
WIGGINS' STORM HERALD.

letter — it is safe to say it will not be ; but let every one expect that
the coming March will, like all its predecessors in the memory of
man, be characterized by storms of greater or less severity. The
United States Signal Service in no one of its departments is more
uniformly successful than in giving notice of the approach of severe
storms. The records of the office show that not a single storm of
] any severity has moved across the country of our eastern shores for
some years without warning being given to the Atlantic Coast. When
March, 1883, arrives, the Service will issue its storm-warnings in
advance of the storms which are to be looked for at that season of
the year, and these warnings may be received with confidence, be-
cause they do not depend upon the imagination of any would-be
prophet, but reot upon the experience which past years has given
the Service in its work. The published statement that the United
States Signal Service has such confidence in Mr. Wiggins that it dis-
played storm signals on the lakes three days in advance of a recent
storm, on the strength of his prediction, needs no comment except
an emphatic denial. The Signal Service is independent of any one
who claims to foretell the weather ; it works by its own methods,
and endeavors to keep pace with every real advance in the science
of meteorology, but to avoid everything which belongs to the realm
of foolish imaginings. In point of fact, the Service has first learned
of any predictions made by Mr. Wiggins from the letter under pre-
sent discussion, and in the case above mentioned, storm signals were
not displayed on the lakes till a few hours before the approach of
the storm in question.

Too severe rebuke cannot be inflicted upon those who attempt to
deceive or needlessly alarm the people by publishing such statements
as that ot Mr. Wiggins. Their words are totally untrustworthy and
the people should be so informed by those who are familiar with the
subjects upon which these prophets presume to speak. Such state-
ments fill lunatic asylums, and those who make them are enemies v">f
society. Their publication is a pestilence, and it is the duty of ail
persons who know the truth to denounce them and enlighten those

who might believe them.

Washington, Dic, 20, 1882.

W. B.

Hazen,
Chief Signal Officer.

,

General Hazen first misrepresents, and then proceeds to demolish
the shadow of his own creation. / did not ly that the storm will
cross eastward over the Rocky Mountains. On the contrary, it will

19
i,.'

WIGGINS' STORM HERALD.

originate in the " Northern Pacific," and will proceed directly west-
ward, in an opposite direction, and will reach the Rocky Mountains
from the east after having passed round the world. This may seem
astounding to the general, but astronomers treat of the causes^ while
meteorologists treat only of the effects. A stratum of atmosphere
covering half the continent might move from these mountains to the
Atlantic, and the fact be unknown if moving in a plane one or two
miles above the earth's surface. The last transit of Venus, Dec. 6th,
1882, afforded the most positive proof as to the scientific reliability
of my theory of continental storms

The following letter was sent to His Excellency Lord Lome,
Governor-General, then at Santa Barbara, California, Her Royal
Highness the Princess Louise being on her way to Bermuda to
spend the winter :

Ottawa, Dec. 23, 1882.
May it please your Excellency.

Seeing it announced that Her Royal Highness the Princess Louise
IS to undertake a sea voyage and sojourn some months in Bermuda,
I take the liberty to inform Your Excellency that the ensuing winter
will be remarkable for violent storms in the Atlantic ocean ; one
beginning on the night of the qth of January, one still more severe
on the 9th of February, and the third on t»ie 9th, loth and nth of
March. The last named will be one of the most extensive and
destructive of the present century. As the planetary pressure will
be greatest on this meridian circle, this storm's greatest strength will
appear in the vicinity of the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico.
I have the honor to be Your Excellency's

most obedient, humble servant,

E. Stone Wiggins.

21

https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=aeu.ark%3A%2F13960%2Ft7sn0t49g;page=root;view=plaintext;size=100;seq=29


I am guessing but the depth to the magma chamber and the forces requied to extrac eruptions in the vent produce a perfectly rotary storm which in all cases will flow along the surface like an esczped gyroscope:

https://youtu.be/15OyN9MNehs?t=2078