Hold your Fire

Crystals from an eruption in New Zealand about 700 years ago  went through a comparatively 'cool' period for thousands of years before heating up. From 750 degrees C, it was decades or less - before an eruption occurred. Professor Adam Kent, of Oregon State University, said that it is 650 degrees C, not fluid enough to flow to the surface. Data shows it's only a period of years or decades before it erupts.

Prediction is still impossible due to a lack of knowledge about the temperature history of the magma. The crystals zirconium silicate from the Mount Tarawera eruption around 1315 by rapid heating, applicable to many other volcanoes around the world may help volcanologists recognise when a volcano is about to blow. Similarities to many volcanoes around the world, including the Cascades, USA.

A past study by Professor Kent's team using a different approach found Mt. Hood in Oregon also spent most of its history in a cold, rigid state before moving rapidly into an eruptive phase. This new study adds more certainty to the method, and provides a new tool to apply the work to other volcanoes.

The key is the volcanoes' thermal or temperature history.

Past studies tried to reconcile data from too many types of crystal. Zircon crystals, which can be dated through the decay of uranium and thorium, adds more resolution, or precision, to the process.

Instead of trying to piece together what happened from the debris, the crystals can tell us what was going on while they were below the surface, including the run up to an eruption and will have wide applications to volcanoes removing some uncertainty and gives us a great new tool to recognise where mobile magma is present.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/817605/Volcano-eruption-black-box-predict-years-advance