Monday, February 23, 2015

Forecasting volcanic activity 1

From a letter initially posted to the owner of: http://www.volcanolive.com/contact.html


When three cyclones on a weather chart line up you may expect seismic disturbances that are likely to be of that nature. I have yet to find a way of locating centres but for now:

On all regional charts that cover at least half an ocean/continent the length of time these weather systems hold position is crucial. Too short a time frame indicates seismic tremors, longer periods -enough to feature in 2 charts 12 hours apart, indicate a stronger likelihood for volcanism to be the outcome.

I believe the longer the feature is present on weather forecasts, the more powerful the event will be.

There are a number of other features that go hand in hand with the above but this information is all you need to look at to assure yourself that this effect is true.
(More often than not.)

***

A synoptic scale chart:


At the time of writing this is the latest public forecast chart from the British Meteorological Office. They are generally issued about 7 1/3 hours after the analysis chart (above) has been prepared and accepted.

From all the available date the following forecasts are prepared, run and checked and, when the chief meteorologist is satisfied, published.

The North Atlantic has been the most comprehensively studied region in the universe for over a century. It's importance to commerce and the number of countries that border the Atlantic will ensure it remains so for a long time to come.

You should, by now, be very familiar with it. It is as important a piece of your education as anything you learned in maths, Physics and the language of your nation. If you are unfamiliar with it and live alongside or near to the North Atlantic you may wish to consider suing your educators. I will furnish as much assistance to that end as I can.

You are unlikely to get very far though. The reason being that the scientists involved although very capable are incompetent. I think that can easily be proven:
How many years have scientists had seismographs at their disposal?

How many years have they had access to the Internet?

How far along in earthquake and volcano forecasting have they got in all that time?

And the biggie:
How far ahead are weather forecasts of any value?

Point made.
Point taken?


***

A synoptic chart is made up of mesoscale derived data. Stuff from mesoscale sized systems, hurricanes for instance or more usually northern cyclones and anticyclones will be quite closely studied. And the weather stations available for the North Atlantic charts are extremely good.
So good, in fact, that we are able to discern earthquake signals from it:

On the above chart you can see black lines forming concentric rings that almost fill the North Atlantic basin. This is a blocked low. From the other forecasts in today's run, we can see it is not going anywhere for a while. It is what we call an Icelandic low, a semi-permanent feature of the weather at seal level in the North Atlantic.

Now here is the thing:
It always forms when there are strong gales and low category hurricanes/typhoons. At the moment there are none showing. So something is wrong in the system.
In the meantime we can make use of the chart to show something that ALWAYS occurs when storms end: twin or treble parallel fronts. On the chart above they are the two blue lines of triangles that run from the centre down along the coast of Europe to the bottom left of the picture.

They don't have to follow that course. And they don't have to be blue. Most charts were origianlly written in black and white, so the pictographs say as much as Egyptian Hieroglyphs. The blue triangles indicate a line of cold weather running east to west.

The red lines that look like lines of cartoon mice are warm fronts. Regions where the system is warm running east to west. East to west is the normal direction for storms in the northern hemisphere. But they can move the other way. It may be possible to use such directions to forecast other geo-physical phenomena. Volcanic eruptions perhaps.

But for now you can see where the seismic disturbances foretold some 7 1/2 hours in advance will have arrived by now (12:36 at the time of writing.)

Just find pairs or triple earthquakes on this page:

10:36 -24.24 -66.73 5.1 ML SALTA, ARGENTINA
10:25 -36.58 177.19 5.2 Mb OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND
09:05 -5.63 152.70 4.9 Mb NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G
08:04 40.80 46.20 4.3 Mb Eastern Caucasus
08:00 35.57 140.20 4.6 Mb NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU<<
06:36 25.50 95.70 4.5 Mb Myanmar-India border re
01:37 39.84 143.43 4.7 Mb OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU<<
00:48 -4.44 126.40 4.7 Mb BANDA SEA
00:09 -3.45 139.02 4.8 Mb PAPUA, INDONESIA
2015/02/22

22:39 -0.04 123.88 4.3 Mb SULAWESI, INDONESIA

Close; but no cigar.
There should be a series of consecutive earthquakes on the list that are on the same epicentre to within a degree or so either way. The columns run:
Date, time, latitude, longitude, magnitude and region.

There should be three sets too:
The warm fronts in western Europe, the cold fronts mentioned above and the warm fronts that join the very ends of those.
I have complete confidence they will arrive. There are no tropical storms but I am quite confident too that such storms as are required to fit the picture are already running. But they are not tropical. They have as much energy as a Hurricane though -or did.

Look them up in today's weather reports/news bulletins:
"Stormy weather 23 February 2015"

They will appear on here or the NEIC list (Archives.)

The consecutive earthquakes will arrive on time, just not on my time. (or the meteorological time.)
So, look forwards to more on this, later.