5 December 2017

There appears to be a lot of spin going on in the NA-EFS, so unless I have missed anything there will be more tornadoes. I have no idea where. I can hear something sizzling and presume it is tornadoes building the next eruption but I am not god.

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

https://youtu.be/1k1ccguXiws?t=184 5 December 2017 looks interesting let's hear what Celestia says. A little help here, lads?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1441929600

I am unfamiliar with this set up.

I can only guess it must be a continuation of the major eruption in Arung.

https://watchers.news/2017/11/27/agung-eruption-shifts-to-magmatic-alert-level-at-highest-lahars-100-000-evacuating/

Around 100 000 residents near Agung, Indonesia have been told to evacuate after phreatic eruptions. Lahars prompted authorities to raise the alert to highest. Residents and tourists are warned to stay away. Continuous volcanic ash up to 9.1 km (30 000 feet). There are currently no flights in or out of Bali.
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Whatever it is it looks like it will still be here when the run ends.

Until at last, warm front separation is achieved?

And then what?
On Thursday afternoon, what I would have said in the good old days, looks like a Magnitude 7+ eruption is going to occur:

What I used to look for, IIRC, was an occluded front "broaching" or coming ashore. Usually as they leave the sea-bed and transition to the sial from the sima crossing the continental shelf they release their energy.

Actually, what happens is that somewhere else gets the epicentre and the relatively deep Low in the south of Norway dissipates. If you want to go earthquake chasing, the epicentre will be some 80 degrees from the eye of the storm.

Check a few hours before the due date to see what the closest prediction can be made on the chat but remember that other agencies will also be forecasting this, for example NOAA:

Perhaps they provide a better service than the MetO in that they have a larger data set and might supply a cross reference for the location. At the moment 80 degrees from the one eye could be Tokyo, Rat Island or Concepción, Chile.

I would love to be able to spend more time second guessing god but I have been doing this for the past 5 or 6 hours now and I have limits. I haven't even looked at half of the few charts I manage on more straight-forward forecasts.
F'rinstance the super-storm in the tropics has to die first:

How 'bout that?
How far is that from the North Atlantic Low 969mb, near Norway/Sweden/Baltic?

I can't possibly cover it all. Maybe I should beg my master to send out more workers to the field but if the buggers are not out in the field already, I can't use you. Meet me half way and I'll see.

How far is Ochi from where I said?
90°+?
So will they both fade withe the quake?

I wonder what it could be like to have a real life. Keep regular hours, have friends, eat properly. Go to bed like everyone else?

***

It is still still and gloomy with a hint of mist (in the heat-island effect of Stoke on Trent's once famously polluted skies.) I was writing a blog about a couple or three months ago in which I was going to show you the "butterfly effect" that is a problem with all forecast scharts. This is a good time to finish the job.

When a major geo-phenomena such as a swarm series, a large earthquake or a volcanic eruption takes place, the associated standing wave or blocked system will clear. With this case the cyclone will fill as the legs of the occlusion over-run (close) when the two air masses meet.

The warm air separates and rise above the colder one. Presumably the mixing that follows allows the temperatures to balance without forming the inversions that arrive with volcanic activity. However this stuff is highly unstable and vents with the development of a great deal of energy.

The energy generated is in the order of magnitude 5.5 or greater, popularly compared to the energy released in thousands of tons of high explosive but the same values is reached whether the energy is petrol, paraffin or diesel all of which have more or less the same value as TNT. (Slightly less as the octane drops but substantially similar.)

See how I get side tracked all the time. What an idiot! I want to dot all the tease and cross all the eyes. Wife wanted, must be perfect!

Where was I?
That's right about to go out, for strange as it may seem I do have a life -a limited one these days. I'll run over the chhrts once more when I get back if I get back.