Forecasting Volcanic eruptions.

An interesting alternative:

I started writing this bog last night, some time around midnight to one am, before deciding that I was too tired to continue. This morning I woke up to the continual ringing of tinnitus. Fortunately my symptoms are relatively benign at the moment although I know it can get pretty painful, having experienced first hand several isolated sharp cracks out of the blue.

If you are a fellow traveller I may have something that could ease your mind a little. I have the reason tied up in meteorology for you in a way that you can understand it If you can accept the idea pattern recognition, you may have useful job waiting for you to develop. Back to the idea:

The following series of charts might help us all to shed some light on the development of volcanoes. I have no idea but the change from deep blocking lows to the relatively anticyclonic nature of the Lows in the Atlantic is their key:

If you are wondering why this crank is trying to get you to look at charts that are nowhere near you, these charts are nowhere near anyone that doesn't speak Cetan.

I will put up  the earlier ones from the forecast I made a couple of days back later. (For a sharper analysis, if that is possible.)

The forecast changed radically since I made the first one. the cyclones are more open right now and that means volcanic activity is pervasive.

Like you, if you have tinitus, everything that hears noises in a lower frequency than normal will be hearing the noise they make.

The good news is that they probably make this same range of noises every time, for each particular set of circumstances.

The bad news is that it is going to be as impossible to convince anyone about it as it is to convince you.

Not to worry, they probably don't suffer from tinnitus

yet!

So what do I do. I generally ask god for help when I hit a snag. This one poses the problem of what to ask for by way of help. Fortunately faith is not a factor. I believe and believe he knows exactly what I need. And in fact I have already asked him.

So leaving all of that in more capable hands than mine I aim to get on with things:

Is this an "H" I see before me? Come let me at least describe the optical illusion, the ghostly image set smack in the middle of the cyclone at 70 South on the Greenwich Meridian.

I have thee not, and yet I see thee still.
Art thou not, fatal vision, sensible to my feeling as to sight? or art thou but
A dagger of the mind, a false creation, Proceeding from the heat-oppressed brain of an obsessive?

I have recently suffered Stroke and I have a brother who suffers Parkinsons disease. I am fully aware of the symptoms of delusion. Furtherme I have had to put up with gelogists who imagined they were disabusing me of apofenia.

Theirs is a world full of losers. I am certainly not a geologist the utter of darkness is waiting for such people.
Poor bastards that might have been rich but it was not to be.

There is nothing I can do for them.
Fortunately they are out of sight and I appear to be blessed with a severely hard skin so fk them. C:

They have served only themselves and served themselves right.
Since there is nothing i can do about it, all I can say is too bad for them and get on with it.

When a cyclone takes on air from an anticyclone the isobars in the mass open up and the scheme appears a lot lighter.

The various "eyes" that make it op, separate and offer an opportunity for study.

These particular charts from BoM do not offer weather fronts. There are individual charts offered for the Southern Hemisphere but thes take time to prepare and are onl offered one at a time, as such things are nor subject to mass production.

I am sure that once the demand is created everyone will be at it.

How difficult is it to prepare GRIB charts for the Southern Hemisphere?

Compare things with the situation in the run of these:
http://weatherlawyer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/clintongate.html

I am going to have to explain it all more clearly. The problem is, I don't see it clearly yet. "I am of the opinion that the Ocean cycle is holding things back for us. Presumably this is a good thing."

If it adds to the sum of human knowledge it is. Especially if the phenomenon is phenomenal! And I think it will be.
As a place marker:
That trivia I posted a few days back is nothing compared to the Anticyclonic entrainment developing right under our tightly closed eyes.

Statistics

Looking for anomalies in the field of geo-science is one of the most rewarding thing I have ever done but it can be a long tedious process, especially irksome if you already know what you are looking for. I dare say that there are accomplished data manipulators that can whistle through this stuff and now that I am showing them why there is no reason for any of them not to.

It would make my job a lot easier if they did.

I am looking for proof that tropical storms devolve into  earthquakes. As I have already proven this stuff it is disheartening that I have to keep doing it again how many time can you do something again again?

I am taking all the data on the USGS server for the last months (from July) as one has to start somewhere. I am going to check on the last storm in the Atlantic in July and need to include everything from the beginning of the months so I can drop the dead donkeys.

I am storing the data from USGS on Google Documents and making them available so that any one who wishes can fish them out to see what I have done. At the moment I am only working with data for the Atlantic the by-blows can be edited out if they become obviously sourced to the storms in other oceans.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
2017-07-01 00:00:00
2017-09-17 23:59:59
The link used to carry the embedded data with it but that was in the days when nobody but farts and fossils ever used the site. It has been improved no end since then!

The problem is that I don't know how storms range -or rather; nobody but god knows how earthquakes are transmitted across ranges of storms. Thus all 'quakes should be considered until someone stands up with a final decision. In Britain an unpopular decision can be challenged among the parties involved by making the call: "the best of three". Personally I would be unhappy with a final decision that was not unanimous.

And my best of three would be a tossed coin that landed unequivocally on the same face three times. Especially if I were the one chosen as sacrifice. But it works two ways in that the survivors will not be ashamed to get a free pass; something that plagues survivors of difficult trauma to this day.

It is interesting that the lots described in Hebrew look like this:

האורים
התומים

I am no scholar but I would say that the Hebrew words Urim and Thummim look like the phrase: "Once or twice". Make of that what you will.

These are the earthquakes of 4.5 Magnitude and larger, from 1 July to 17 September

As you can see the season is far from over so I will have to come back on this later. I do hope I can find something interesting to show for it. As for you:
You should look upon this as a study in futility. Consider the wies man Joseph, obvious to all familiar with the story back in his day that he was being blessed by god. Then one generation later, the dynasty of Pharaoh was replaced by someone who was not interested in good management.

Would you after learning of The Hebrews, follow a false premise?
Would you enter a cascade of water that was exposing the sea-bed to chase after an hoard of slaves with the intention of recapturing them?

What manner of people was the world producing in those days?

and were they completely different to the Palestinians who followed Sampson into his tent after he had taken his woman there?
What the hell were they expecting on the third occasion?

How about fake news, do you imagine that, we having the Internet of Things these days, are now much wiser than those men?
Instead of the prophets we have scions of so called alternative reasoners. Along with the world wide media, that works the system for money we have individuals that struggle to send out alternative messages. How are you involved?

Do you think that because to are inactive that you can not be washed away in the storms?
How do I know?
All I know is that it can be very tiring but a little goes a long way.

Nobody is going to run over you with an earthquake and you can see a storm coming when it is out at sea. And that is where most of the damage is done. significant storm drops more than 90% of its energy on empty water.

I have arranged the data in two sections so that you can locate any earthquakes near you quickly: by Latitude then by longitude where the two meet are the swarms, the large ones are most likely where two tremors meet simultaneously. if anyone knows better I look forward to them proving it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mHY-_ED_ykue32GDhdqWvcUs1BVbSpgrtVlwJ_Lj4cM/edit?usp=sharing

I seem to have messed up the spreadsheet in Google. Maybe I will try printing it to drive later but now my brain has boggled once more and I am out of here.

Clintongate

This essay is not about politics. It is about honesty in statistics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyF5pBsJXGQ
I was going to call it "Cold Core Depression Clinton" but the name is far too long for my thousands of followers to spare it any attention from their heinous busy responsibilities.

I was given the heads-up to the gist of the subject by a girl-friend, a decade or so back. She pointed out the anomaly for the Australian High but the phenomena appears on all continents, for all the continents have access to anticyclones on that latitude the source of this vignette.

Tropical anticyclones: The Five Day Wave

The five day wave is actually a seven day wave if you allow the cycle to span the beginning and the end. It appears to be related to the lunar phase. But that may just be a foible of mine, for I like to explain cycles of the moon in this way. In earth science, the statistical approach is too vast and fanciful for anyone to announce a cut and dried "one size fits all" resolution to its analysis. 

For example, the amount of hot air produced in the arguments about creation or the alternatives, would have powered enough energy to run the Industrial Revolution from the start to the future of futility.

Keep you eye on the band of pneuma-kinesiology at 30 South 20 West (but any of the bands of doldrums will suffice for your needs.)

The patch of air off Africa is particularly striking as it follows after South America -which supplies a particularly powerful blast to the region. Besides all that stuff off Australia is full of volcanic-mas all the damned time confusing things for the rest of us.

I think I have posted too may charts in here, meaning I am having to waffle on inexcusably while the weather catches up.

I hope you don't mind; especially since I don't care. I've got all these charts and I hate to waste them.

Scroll down until you see the air bleed out of the anticyclone in the Atlantic and become the anticyclone in the Indian whilst I go for a snooze (tell me when!)

And I will get back to you.

And I am back.
How is it going?

As you can see the transport of High pressure between continents is a slow but steady continuum.

And this  poses one more puzzle to the discerning philosopher besides the reasons why it only goes flat at the bottom.

(Although the reason why the tube only goes flat at higher latitudes had never been asked as far as I know. A conundrum made more difficult because the pressure, particularly on the Antarctic Circle engenders such extravagance. As if proof were finally being offered to doubters that Jehovah is indeed hanging the world upon nothing.)

Though I would be the first to agree the passage is poetry, I would not wish to be found among those who insist that poetry must always be taken literally. Consider the lengths some will go to climb inside their colons: http://corior.blogspot.co.uk/2006/02/part-1-astronomy.html

It doesn't matter how large the world is made, for some, there will always be room elsewhere.

Sorry about that but we need the occasional rebuke to keep us on track.

As you can see, the air gradually makes its way between oceans. It is important to realise the importune of these oceans. Because the way that they are constructed gives rise to something called the Ventuir Effect.

This is something that gives rise to one of the Millennial Problems (that is posed by the Clay Institute based in Peterborough, New Hampshire, USA) of the Navier–Stokes Equation This is the equation which governs the flow of fluids such as water and air.

However, there is no proof for the most basic questions one can ask: do solutions exist and are they unique?
Why ask for a proof?
Because a proof gives not only certitude but understanding.

Yer ave ter laff!

The problem is ridiculous and has already been explained at the outset of research by the likes of Beaufort and Froude:

Waves follow our boat as we meander across the lake, and turbulent air currents follow our flight in a modern jet.

Mathematicians and physicists believe that an explanation for -and the prediction of both, the breeze and the turbulence can be found through an understanding of solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations. Although these equations were written down in the 19th Century, our understanding of them remains minimal. The challenge is to make substantial progress toward a mathematical theory which will unlock the secrets hidden in the Navier-Stokes equations.

All you need to answer the most intractable questions is to ask the right questions -of the right people. In this case the answer lies with god. Fortunately he is willing to answer our questions, if only we prove willing to ask them.

The reason that the stream of air goes through this particular fan without creating a shit storm as it does is called "Contra Rotation".

This is a problem known to heating engineers the world over as vapour lock. And it is exactly the same thing as any child can observe on any seashore the Solar System over. The Galaxy-over when, it comes to that and indeed the Whole Material Universe answers to it as well:

There are cemeteries that are lonely, graves full of bones that do not make a sound. The heart moving through a tunnel,
in it darkness, darkness, darkness,like a shipwreck we die going into ourselves, as though we were drowning inside our hearts.
As though we lived falling out of the skin into the soul.

And there are corpses, feet made of cold and sticky clay, death is inside the bones, like a barking where there are no dogs.
Coming out from bells somewhere, from graves somewhere, growing in the damp air like tears of rain. 

Pablo Neruda

It would not surprise me if a communist such as the much lauded Che Guevara was in some way responsible for that.

The deaths of countless poets must belong to some body.

But now we can begin to see the reason why streams are prolific and hurricanes are both rare and random.

Next to the anticyclone (1032 millibars) at 60 E. the cyclone (984 mb) at 80 E, is developing Vapour Lock due to the adjacent Low at 105 E. (905 mb.)

The central air mass is developing contra rotation as it becomes liable to shed the developing anticyclone it is charging.

God's own Pneumatics deflates the first air mass and throws the second cyclone into the coast of Antarctica, dropping the temperature of the core and significantly altering the amount of water available to the anticyclone involved.

Oh, what a coincidence we have run out of charts.
No matter. I have said all I wished. Perhaps I can come back to resolve the issue of swirl for little boys everywhere.

Harvey revisited

I was unaware of volcanic activity for most of this afternoon although I had caught traces of a very quiet pool of noise.


Something close to 5 minutes ago I became aware of a ticking noise, akin to the tapping of knitting needles, that I recognised straight away as the signal for a cessation of an eruption.


I can only say that both signals were weak, the susurration of the eruption was very weak and I only just heard the tapping of the cease fire. That was at 21:50 on the 13 September, 2017. I doubt we will be getting news of that immediately unless it was a mountain already being studied at the time and even then I don't think the eruption will have been striking.


Either it was not impressive or it was very far away. It is hard to imagine a mountain that is much further away than Bogoslof, except of course that in another hemisphere, the sounds may not have been able to carry so far as the Aleutian Channel to the North Atlantic.

Hurricane-2 GERT 13-17 AUG 90 2       

Hurricane-4 HARVEY 17 AUG-01 SEP 115 4       

Hurricane-5 IRMA 30 AUG-12 SEP         160 5       

Hurricane-4 JOSE 05-13 SEP         135 4        Active

12        Hurricane-2 KATIA         05-09 SEP 90         2       


What the hell was this:

Tropical Depression GUCHOL 04-06 SEP 30

Typhoon-3 TALIM 08-13 SEP 105 Active

Tropical Depression TILAM 10-10 SEP                -       

Tropical Storm DOKSURI         11-13 SEP 60 Active



It is amazing how quickly Irma was dropped when they managed to hang on to Gert for so long: 

40.10  -58.40 08/17/00Z   90   967 -2

41.70  -54.00 08/17/06Z   85   968 -2

43.20  -50.00 08/17/12Z   70   975 -1

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/index.php

There was some activity in the Indian Ocean and in the Indonesian part of the Pacific that may have been responsible: Doksuri and Talim; Talim I think was powerful enough but what do I know?

Time and again it has been the smaller storm that was the factor in other stuff. Even Harvey was smaller than Irma.I think I missed something in the signal from yesterday that was not clearly marked but it was not too far from the beaten track of Indonesian ones. I will have to post a blog showing it for it is confused though interesting.
This is it:






These were from the forecast and were very confused.





These were weak as well as confused.





But it looks as though there is more to come despite then being short lived. Bearing in mid what else short lived could mean! (All the more so with the Indonesian being a smaller storm -as we found with Harvey.)

   

The Evolution of the Tropical Storm in the North Atlantic

The Evolution of the Tropical Storm in the North Atlantic

I am basing this stuff on a number of conceptions that I have developed over the years and if it runs counter to anyone's preconceptions I can only say: “Suck it and see.”

This was a difficult thing for me to put together out of all the confusing cross-signals while trying to mange to keep a cohesive sequence made all the more difficult as I can no longer recall automatically where the keys are on the board.

I found myself losing track of what I was trying to explain and redoing the phrases and paragraphs while trying not to get lost in my own confusions.

So if it slips up I can only promise to redo things when they occur to me, if and when they do.

The Evolution of the Tropical Storm in the North Atlantic

I am basing this stuff on a number of conceptions that I have developed over the years and if it runs counter to anyone's preconceptions I can only say: “Suck it and see.”

1. The amount of energy a storm is likely to develop is foretold by the sum of all the seismic activity that takes place immediately prior to the event.

2. The resultant is likewise shown in the seismic traces following the cyclosis.

Cyclos: the period when the storm abates after its peak.

3. The relationship of storms to earthquakes is a teleconnection of the signal arriving at location some 80 degrees from one another (seiche to quake and afterwards quake to seiche.)

Teleconnection: an effect at a distance, sometimes confused with a system's "memory".

Seiche: a pulse of water from a knock.

4. Storm signals will arrive as seismic signals at angles that tend to be subdivisions of pattern. The signal developed between seismic and atmospheric events is on a sliding scale development from Beaufort and extended in three to four hour periods that translate to wind strength as tropical storms with a range of amplitudes of 18 to 30 hours.

6. When seismic signals of Magnitude 5.5 disappear all over the planet for a period of days and return after more than 30 and more hours with the return of earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger, the signal transforms into volcanic activity.

7. The signals for Volcanic activity appear on the North Atlantic charts (after the evolution of large amounts of polarised water deposition) as a separation of warm and cold fronts (from occlusions that signal tornadic activity) to broken warm and cold fronts at sea level that signal multiple polar points of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity that separates in different directions whilst still in the Atlantic Oean.

Polarised Water: When a volcano erupts, superheated water in the magma separates from the debris and condenses above the troposphere as a type of water that is dionised and incapable of condensing until mixing with previously expelled debris.

8. The direction of separation follow a northerly route for warm fronts and a westerly course for cold fronts.

9. Warm fronts tend to leave the Atlantic though the Norwegian Sea (following the evolution of large eruptions) and enter the Arctic Ocean where they tend to cause storms that serve to build thickness of thin ice cover, with the tendency to confuse climatologists into believing that there has been a significant loss off ice cover.

10. Ordinarily, storms are absent in the Arctic gyre where temperatures are too stable to allow mixing.

11. Earthquake tendencies during volcanic activity are "swarms" of low magnitude. These tend to follow periods of larger quakes. And in turn are followed by larger quakes.

12. A pattern develops with earthquakes that appears on both sides of the tropical storm at the previously mentioned distances of some 80 degrees.

13. Along with the teleconnection, cyclones appear on the North Atlantic chart in the region of Greenland as anticyclones.

14. These form in cyclones developed in the traffic of volcanic matter over North America, where they are captured in the lower atmosphere and form massive cold-core storms that have large eyes by the time they get over the Davies Straight.

Cold-core storms: these differ from tropical storms as the heat of the latter is maintained by the recycling of salt until the system reaches latitudes where salt uptake is too slow to maintain a continuous chain

15. When large amounts of the polarised water arrives in the region of the Davies Straight their systems begin to separate as described above, with the evolution of two to three time the usual number of polar points.

Polar Points: a mixture of small diameter cyclones and anticyclones with relatively small pressure differences either side of 1016-millbars. (Technically all "polar points" are "dots" that can rotate as opposed to a straight line -an axis which is not considered rotational. If I got that right?)

Geography

Geography is defined as places people go to. Traditionally people go to geography to see the people living there already. Maybe they are relatives or maybe they have some sort of skill that the people visiting are interested in acqurining.

The travel thus implies a form of trade where relatives feed the visitors or commerce where the inquisitive buy something to trade when they go home. This implies a net gain overall as poor relations tend to get left behind in the operation of trade.

Who needs them?

Commerce on the other hand has its own peculiar ways of subsisting. And it would be a one way street of limited import if it were continually a one way street. But ports lead to other ports and soon enough visitors learn what to bring to the fire.

It is a peculiar state of affairs where trade is restricted by an outside service of any kind. Borders have to be manned but it works out best for all concerned if border patrols are minimal. Artificial practices that do more than offer a service for traders tend to ignite a poisonous for-profit scheme that trade itself generates opposition to.

How ports fare when they fall on hard times is a measure of how well there balance of trade is set up. If the difficulty is obviously a matter of time out of normal patterns that should quickly offer hope for recovery, things generally tend to reshuffle as a change in the profits and losses take place.

The is always some sort of cover. If commerce has become overprotected the covers either get removed or the businesses start to fail and operations move to another port. How soon things get better in the USA will be a measure of how successful business in the USA intends to be when its operations are threatened by such outside forces as have been visited over the last ten and more years.

It will be interesting to see how a successful business man will fashion recovery compared to the previous regimes. The one dealing with the first catastrophe was an absolute disaster himself. He was fortunate enough to have started with a loaded treasury, or an apparently loaded treasury. That was happy to subsist on theft and outright  murder..

The second one was a lack-lustre regime, full of promises but with empty cupboards. And worse that one was secretly just as shameful as its predecessor. In fact it is famous for its lies and liars and it is hard to see how it can possibly recover. It has to be as infamous as any regime in history including the very worst of them. It is difficult to see anything else about it but acrimony and infamy.

The third has to be a maker or a breaker. And apparently he is not going to have the luxury of any pretences. He is not even going to have the false protection of the trade restictors. The civil service has been taught to serve itself at all costs. And it will be a particularly adept leader that can work with that situation.

Fish food

What are Phytoplankton?
By Rebecca Lindsey and Michon Scott Design by Robert Simmon July 13, 2010
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Phytoplankton/

Derived from the Greek words phyto (plant) and plankton (made to wander or drift), phytoplankton are microscopic organisms that live in watery environments, both salty and fresh. Some phytoplankton are bacteria, some are protists, and most are single-celled plants. Among the common kinds are cyanobacteria, silica-encased diatoms, dinoflagellates, green algae, and chalk-coated coccolithophores.

Phytoplankton are extremely diverse, varying from photosynthesizing bacteria (cyanobacteria), to plant-like diatoms, to armor-plated coccolithophores (drawings not to scale). (Collage adapted from drawings and micrographs by Sally Bensusen, NASA EOS Project Science Office.)

Like land plants, phytoplankton have chlorophyll to capture sunlight, and they use photosynthesis to turn it into chemical energy. They consume carbon dioxide, and release oxygen. All phytoplankton photosynthesize, but some get additional energy by consuming other organisms.

Phytoplankton growth depends on the availability of carbondioxide, sunlight, and nutrients. Phytoplankton, like land plants, require nutrients such as nitrate, phosphate, silicate, and calcium at various levels depending on the species.

Some phytoplankton can fix nitrogen and can grow in areas where nitrate concentrations are low. They also require trace amounts of iron which limits phytoplankton growth in large areas of the ocean because iron concentrations are very low. Other factors influence phytoplankton growth rates, including water temperature and salinity, water depth, wind, and what kinds of predators are grazing on them.

Worldwide, this “biological carbon pump” transfers about 10 gigatonnes of carbon from the atmosphere to the deep ocean each year.

Phytoplankton thrive along coastlines and continental shelves, along the equator in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and in high-latitude areas. Winds play a role in the distribution of phytoplanktonas they drive currents that cause deep water, loaded with nutrients, to be pulled up to the surface.

These upwelling zones, including one along the equator maintained by the convergence of the easterly trade winds, and others along the western coasts of several continents, are among the most productive ocean ecosystems.

By contrast, phytoplankton are scarce in remote ocean gyres due to nutrient limitations.

Like plants on land, phytoplankton growth varies seasonally. In high latitudes, blooms peak in the spring and summer, when sunlight increases and the relentless mixing of the water by winter storms subsides. Recent research suggests the vigorous winter mixing sets the stage for explosive spring growth by bringing nutrients up from deeper waters into the sunlit layers at the surface and separating phytoplankton from their zooplankton predators.

In the subtropical oceans, by contrast, phytoplankton populations drop off in summer. As surface waters warm up through the summer, they become very buoyant. With warm, buoyant water on top and cold, dense water below, the water column doesn't mix easily. Phytoplankton use up the nutrients available, and growth falls off until winter storms kick-start mixing.

In lower-latitude areas, including the Arabian Sea and the waters around Indonesia, seasonal blooms are often linked to monsoon-related changes in winds. As the winds reverse direction (offshore versus onshore), they alternately enhance or suppress upwelling, which changes nutrient concentrations. In the equatorial upwelling zone, there is very little seasonal change in phytoplankton productivity.

Next

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.htmlPressure at sea level.

There are one or two anticylones in the mix allowing for a little rotation but there are seven or more cyclones on Tuesday's chart.
 The problem is that the forecast for Monday is not easy to interpret. The one for Wednesday is full of blocked systems, so I am going to go with a prediction for another large earthquake.

To be honest I am not certain if there will be another large one, or if it will disperse harmlessly with a series of smaller swarms. The North Atlantic is a picture of irresolution with two cyclones well developed either side of Greenland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1504958400

The western Low is large enough for a volcano whilst the eastern one is the image of a dispersing volcano too. Kudos to the geologists that missed all that!
(Who pays those guys?)

Shiveluch (Kamchatka): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: POSS VA CONTINUOUSLY OBS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
...10 Sep:
Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: VA CONTINUOUSLY OBS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OBS VA DTG:09/2320Z

Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: EXPLODED AT 20170910/0307Z OVER FL050 STNR OBS VA DTG:10/0300Z

Langila (New Britain, Papua New Guinea): (9 Sep) Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: VA TO FL080 EXT TO SW OBS VA DTG:09/2150Z

Dukono (Halmahera): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: CONTINUOUS VA TO FL070 MOV NW LAST OBS 10/0110Z
...9 Sep:
Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: CONTINUOUS VA TO FL070 MOV NW OBS VA DTG:09/2230Z

Reventador (Ecuador): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Washington (VAAC) issued the following report: VA EM AT ABT 10/0900Z

Sabancaya (Peru): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Buenos Aires (VAAC) issued the following report: INTERMITTENT EMISSIONS OBS VA DTG:10/0705Z

Perhaps I was being a little harsh?
So now I have to gather the charts and pass judgement: http://weatherlawyer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/next.html


A 12 inch globe has a perimeter around the equator of about 37 1/2 inches, a knotted shoe lace will easily describe an arc of 80 degrees on it perfectly accurately enough for making rough estimates about geo-phenomena.

The point is that the centre of the low in the cyclone west of Greenland is going to be some 80 degrees from the next earthquake or (more likely) volcano.

Follow the weather fronts (on whatever charts) for those hurricanes and typhoons to find the most likely epicentre or whatever volcanic eruptions are called.

You might prefer to try the US charts but you country will besuppltying adequate data for most people to follow the gist of this in their own languages one a server from their own country.

I am using the The Met-Office's because it is the one I am at home with. I am reasonably happy with its strictures one day perhaps someone will tell them about the rest of the world and tell them how to get there.

Until then I am confident that any johnny foreigner can join the dots taking him in the required direction. All that stuff at the bottom left hand side of things should be leading enough tor the would be creationist.

The rest of you monkeys can follow along later.  (Probably.)

The point is that the centre of the low in the cyclone west of Greenland is going to be some 80 degrees from the next earthquake or (more likely) volcano.

Follow the weather fronts (on the charts) for those hurricanes and typhoons to find the most likely epicentre or whatever volcanic eruptions are called.

It really isn't all that hard you just need to know that god doesn't do anything before consulting some of us. And that from then on it is up to us to get it right. I am not the only man making interpretations of what I am seeing. I am not saying I always get it right but any reasonable person can see for themselves the methods that most of us are using and act accordingly.

Do as you wish with what I am telling you:
https://youtu.be/cwqhdRs4jyA

Well it's all right, riding around in the breeze well it's all right, if you live the life you please well it's all right, doing the best you can well it's all right, as long as you lend a hand. You can sit around and wait for the phone to ring, waiting for someone to tell you everything sit around and wonder what tomorrow will bring 

Maybe a diamond ring.

Making rough estimates about geo-phenomena.

 

I have only just seen that the cyclone in the top left (NW of Greenland) is a twin core system. Just in time for a correction. Place the lace, or whatever you use, in the middle or the dual and the nearest anticyclone's core and it will run out at the next place to watch.

Unfortunately my experience with forecasting volcanic eruptions is not as good as that of my forecasting earthquakes. But I am assuming this lack of subjectivity will be made up for with the nearness of objections.

Volcanoes tend to be obvious, especially in eruption.
I am sure you will make the best of it, goodle uckk .

Well it's all right, even if they say you're wrong
Well it's all right, sometimes you have to be strong
Well it's all right, as long as you got somewhere to lay
Well it's all right, everyday is judgement day for someone.

Interesting:
10-SEP-2017 21:40. N. 57.13. E 33.68. 5.9 M. REYKJANES RIDGE it looks like we will have to wait for reports of volcanic activity. I suspect they operate on a different frequency, I dare say it is a small matter of a few days. It has only just occurred to me that I can't hear earthquakes. I have the idea I am going to prefer it this way. And anyway I can't hear weather fronts either but I can see those too.

So swarms it is:

10-SEP-2017 13:40. N 15.63. E 98.60. 4.6 M. OFF COAST OF GUERRERO, MEXICO       10403005
10-SEP-2017 12:00. N 15.89. E 98.49. 4.5 M. OFF COAST OF GUERRERO, MEXICO       10402961
10-SEP-2017 13:25. N 15.48. E 98.88. 4.3 M. OFF COAST OF GUERRERO, MEXICO       10402987
10-SEP-2017 12:06. N 14.05. E 97.15. 4.3 M. OFF COAST OF OAXACA, MEXICO

And these will be appearing in all such future events as appear they must in archives that contain such storms:

10-SEP-2017 08:44. 41.76 N. 142.90 E. 5.4 M. 43 0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
10-SEP-2017 15:51.    35.72 N. 139.11 E. 4.6 M. 66 748 NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

10-SEP-2017 19:05. 42.56 N. -111.41 W. 4.2 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
06-SEP-2017 07:55. 42.56 N. -111.41 W. 4.1 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
09-SEP-2017 08:23. 42.56 N. -111.42 W. 4.1 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
10-SEP-2017 11:12. 42.57 N. -111.43 W. 4.6 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
05-SEP-2017 20:54. 42.58 N. -111.42 W. 4.3 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
10-SEP-2017 09:47. 42.56 N. -111.45 W. 4.7 M.  EASTERN IDAHO

Well there's a thing. I'd'n know Idaho eh. Fancy that.

A nice bit of work, if I say so myself.  You geologists can stick that in your pipe and smoulder!