Next

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.htmlPressure at sea level.

There are one or two anticylones in the mix allowing for a little rotation but there are seven or more cyclones on Tuesday's chart.
 The problem is that the forecast for Monday is not easy to interpret. The one for Wednesday is full of blocked systems, so I am going to go with a prediction for another large earthquake.

To be honest I am not certain if there will be another large one, or if it will disperse harmlessly with a series of smaller swarms. The North Atlantic is a picture of irresolution with two cyclones well developed either side of Greenland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1504958400

The western Low is large enough for a volcano whilst the eastern one is the image of a dispersing volcano too. Kudos to the geologists that missed all that!
(Who pays those guys?)

Shiveluch (Kamchatka): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: POSS VA CONTINUOUSLY OBS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
...10 Sep:
Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: VA CONTINUOUSLY OBS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OBS VA DTG:09/2320Z

Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: EXPLODED AT 20170910/0307Z OVER FL050 STNR OBS VA DTG:10/0300Z

Langila (New Britain, Papua New Guinea): (9 Sep) Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: VA TO FL080 EXT TO SW OBS VA DTG:09/2150Z

Dukono (Halmahera): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: CONTINUOUS VA TO FL070 MOV NW LAST OBS 10/0110Z
...9 Sep:
Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: CONTINUOUS VA TO FL070 MOV NW OBS VA DTG:09/2230Z

Reventador (Ecuador): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Washington (VAAC) issued the following report: VA EM AT ABT 10/0900Z

Sabancaya (Peru): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Buenos Aires (VAAC) issued the following report: INTERMITTENT EMISSIONS OBS VA DTG:10/0705Z

Perhaps I was being a little harsh?
So now I have to gather the charts and pass judgement: http://weatherlawyer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/next.html


A 12 inch globe has a perimeter around the equator of about 37 1/2 inches, a knotted shoe lace will easily describe an arc of 80 degrees on it perfectly accurately enough for making rough estimates about geo-phenomena.

The point is that the centre of the low in the cyclone west of Greenland is going to be some 80 degrees from the next earthquake or (more likely) volcano.

Follow the weather fronts (on whatever charts) for those hurricanes and typhoons to find the most likely epicentre or whatever volcanic eruptions are called.

You might prefer to try the US charts but you country will besuppltying adequate data for most people to follow the gist of this in their own languages one a server from their own country.

I am using the The Met-Office's because it is the one I am at home with. I am reasonably happy with its strictures one day perhaps someone will tell them about the rest of the world and tell them how to get there.

Until then I am confident that any johnny foreigner can join the dots taking him in the required direction. All that stuff at the bottom left hand side of things should be leading enough tor the would be creationist.

The rest of you monkeys can follow along later.  (Probably.)

The point is that the centre of the low in the cyclone west of Greenland is going to be some 80 degrees from the next earthquake or (more likely) volcano.

Follow the weather fronts (on the charts) for those hurricanes and typhoons to find the most likely epicentre or whatever volcanic eruptions are called.

It really isn't all that hard you just need to know that god doesn't do anything before consulting some of us. And that from then on it is up to us to get it right. I am not the only man making interpretations of what I am seeing. I am not saying I always get it right but any reasonable person can see for themselves the methods that most of us are using and act accordingly.

Do as you wish with what I am telling you:
https://youtu.be/cwqhdRs4jyA

Well it's all right, riding around in the breeze well it's all right, if you live the life you please well it's all right, doing the best you can well it's all right, as long as you lend a hand. You can sit around and wait for the phone to ring, waiting for someone to tell you everything sit around and wonder what tomorrow will bring 

Maybe a diamond ring.

Making rough estimates about geo-phenomena.

 

I have only just seen that the cyclone in the top left (NW of Greenland) is a twin core system. Just in time for a correction. Place the lace, or whatever you use, in the middle or the dual and the nearest anticyclone's core and it will run out at the next place to watch.

Unfortunately my experience with forecasting volcanic eruptions is not as good as that of my forecasting earthquakes. But I am assuming this lack of subjectivity will be made up for with the nearness of objections.

Volcanoes tend to be obvious, especially in eruption.
I am sure you will make the best of it, goodle uckk .

Well it's all right, even if they say you're wrong
Well it's all right, sometimes you have to be strong
Well it's all right, as long as you got somewhere to lay
Well it's all right, everyday is judgement day for someone.

Interesting:
10-SEP-2017 21:40. N. 57.13. E 33.68. 5.9 M. REYKJANES RIDGE it looks like we will have to wait for reports of volcanic activity. I suspect they operate on a different frequency, I dare say it is a small matter of a few days. It has only just occurred to me that I can't hear earthquakes. I have the idea I am going to prefer it this way. And anyway I can't hear weather fronts either but I can see those too.

So swarms it is:

10-SEP-2017 13:40. N 15.63. E 98.60. 4.6 M. OFF COAST OF GUERRERO, MEXICO       10403005
10-SEP-2017 12:00. N 15.89. E 98.49. 4.5 M. OFF COAST OF GUERRERO, MEXICO       10402961
10-SEP-2017 13:25. N 15.48. E 98.88. 4.3 M. OFF COAST OF GUERRERO, MEXICO       10402987
10-SEP-2017 12:06. N 14.05. E 97.15. 4.3 M. OFF COAST OF OAXACA, MEXICO

And these will be appearing in all such future events as appear they must in archives that contain such storms:

10-SEP-2017 08:44. 41.76 N. 142.90 E. 5.4 M. 43 0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
10-SEP-2017 15:51.    35.72 N. 139.11 E. 4.6 M. 66 748 NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

10-SEP-2017 19:05. 42.56 N. -111.41 W. 4.2 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
06-SEP-2017 07:55. 42.56 N. -111.41 W. 4.1 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
09-SEP-2017 08:23. 42.56 N. -111.42 W. 4.1 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
10-SEP-2017 11:12. 42.57 N. -111.43 W. 4.6 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
05-SEP-2017 20:54. 42.58 N. -111.42 W. 4.3 M.  EASTERN IDAHO
10-SEP-2017 09:47. 42.56 N. -111.45 W. 4.7 M.  EASTERN IDAHO

Well there's a thing. I'd'n know Idaho eh. Fancy that.

A nice bit of work, if I say so myself.  You geologists can stick that in your pipe and smoulder!

Pretty as a picture

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=56;15;2&l=temperature

Watch out for the Greenland High. I almost forgot that there was a lot of sizzling going on somewhere, so whatever it was it has started all over again.

We have had days of drizzle up to now with some slightly heavier stuff in it a couple of days back. But it is all right the sun is going to shine.
It feels like I haven't done one of these in ages. But I can still remember how. Not quite at the end of the line yet.

The broken warm fronts are going to the Arctic cold and grey and far away

But don't take your eyes off the ball.

Coming through it all down the road a way

In the purple haze

It looks vulcan

Well if anybody can

I suppose vulcan can.

Should I get off now?

9 September 2017

Calling: Hugh, Pugh, Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble and Grub

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sci.geo.earthquakes/wmIBk817OWg

- show quoted text -

I should be impressed:
http://ds.iris.edu/ieb/index.html?format=text&nodata=404&starttime=1970-01-01&endtime=2025-01-01&minmag=0&maxmag=10&mindepth=0&maxdepth=900&orderby=time-desc&limit=800&maxlat=25.110&minlat=5.110&maxlon=-84.180&minlon=-104.180&sbl=1&caller=smexreg&name=Within%2010%20deg%20of%20Lat%2015%2C%20Lon%20-94&zm=5&mt=ter

But I am not, I have been waiting for the depression of post shock trauma to kick-in but this is not that. It is possibly knowing that there is anther one out there ready to go and that I can't find it.

I could get out my old stuff and look for it in the old way but that is too labour intensive. There must be a mathemagical method that immediately rings bells and turns on lights but instead I am waiting for Monday.

Hey. I'll tell you what could be interesting:
If Friday's 8.1 was Harvey
8.1 NEAR COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
Then there is a good chance that we are looking at a sequence:

Hurricane-4 HARVEY 17 AUG-01 SEP 115 knots. And the next one is Irma: 5 30 AUG-09 SEP 160 knots and consequent larger energy value  (although I should also be assuming an inverse.)
Which leaves us with Hurricane-4 JOSE 05-09 SEP 135 Knots.
Hurricane-2 KATIA 05-09 SEP 90 knots.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/index.php

The problem is that the energy levels will all be dropping dramatically with each passing front. Not that this isn't interesting. So that must be good right?

Even more interesting is that all this is happening in the heart of Trumpton. Boy, I would love to see the stupid faces of fake news when they realise this shit happened. And whose going to be the face of the new generation for the next millennium! Carve his name on El Capitan!

What larks Pip Pip!

I probably shouldn't say that as it is demeaning to god. But I can't help thinking that it is a reward for honesty.

All we need is Hugh, Pugh, Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble, Grub to get their act together and start being the Cajun Navy and stop being fake scientits.

Some hope!

Clean o'clock:

8.187km SW of Pijijiapan, Mexico

Significant Earthquakes, Past 30 Days

1. 8.187km SW of Pijijiapan, Mexico
   2017-09-08 04:49:21 UTC69.7 km
2. 6.322km ENE of Sungjibaegam, North Korea
   2017-09-03 03:30:01 UTC0.0 km
3. 5.314km E of Soda Springs, Idaho
   2017-09-02 23:56:52 UTC6.5 km
4. 6.372km NE of Muara Siberut, Indonesia
   2017-08-31 17:06:55 UTC45.1 km
5. 6.4107km NE of Lorengau, Papua New Guinea
   2017-08-27 04:17:50 UTC8.1 km
6. 6.4254km SE of Lambasa, Fiji
   2017-08-19 02:00:52 UTC544.0 km
7. 6.6North of Ascension Island
   2017-08-18 02:59:21 UTC10.0 km
8. 6.471km W of Bengkulu, Indonesia
   2017-08-13 03:08:10 UTC31.0 km
9. 6.22km E of Prinza, Philippines
   2017-08-11 05:28:25 UTC172.0 km

A good place to start any discussion about earthquakes is when you have the attention they deserve,

We have not has a significant earthquake for some time and in fact I had believed that we would not have one during a significant hurricane. I suppose I am sticking my neck out here but that is a job I have appointed to me.

Seiches developed by earthquakes occur all the time and are how god patrols things at the moment. I have no doubt that he is going to permit us to engage in geo-engineering when we have proved trustworthy. How else are we supposed to extend the garden?

Anyway I had noticed that with the cycle being so strongly volcanic that things seismic had produced significantly less powerful earthquakes than I had been expecting, thus I had come to assume that volcanic activity was responsible for their amelioration.

Mea culpa.

And that is about it so far, I'm up to date. So now that we are in a spell of large earthquakes in Mexico (that is we should be in a spell of larger earthquakes than we are seeing? I think that we may be getting another Mag 7-plus somewhere else) we should be looking for a reaction in the Atlantic and possibly Pacific.

And then we can begin awaiting developments. Initially before the next set of storms begins we will see some significant 5.5 or so magnitude in the Antarctic region.

And then we all go around again.

Magic Pracitice

From time to time I used to go back and look at the new things I learned in all the stuff I had written about. I have not done a rehash for some time becaus it has all become more complex and I am afraid there is so much I have forgotten. I will try my best and hope that by raking a part of each level I can work my way through them without making a fool of myself.

And what if I do?
At least it may inspire the next man to do better. And hopefully not inspire a lot of losers to blindly quote me without thinking for themselves.

Let's start with volcanoes, shall we?

When a mountain vents it tells us all we need to know. But before that we have only the philosophies of Thomas Gold to work on. He reasoned in a book of essays similar to an early Blog called The Deep Hot Biosphere. But first a look at why the idea that creation of new particles is to be rejected in favour of a sillier theory:

Gold believed that there was reason to think that the creation of matter was "done all the time and then none of the problems about fleeting moments arise. It can be just in a steady state with the expansion taking things apart as fast as new matter comes into being and condenses into new galaxies".

Beware the dogma of fools -especially the foolish reasoning of the CIA affiliate Wikipedia. There is no reason for you to believe in anything that you don't understand. And to try and grasp onto the assertions of the criminally insane in an effort to understand vacuous imaginings, when we don't even know why a train of  water is ripping through the oceans of this world for the second time in a couple of months, while we make assertions about nebulae is not praiseworthy.

But enough of this nonsense lets get on with it:

The planet is in a state of balance between the creation of crystal mountains and the smashing of huge rock formations. The fluid growth of the pinnacles is from the depths where super-heated water dissolves quartz and deposits layers of caked grime and domes of insoluble salts in the process of vulcanism.

Meanwhile on the other sides of the planet the work is busily undermined by the efforts of earthquakes in the continual cycle of geo-engineering. I hope one day that we will learn enough about this amazing miracle to be allowed to play with it. It was after all, given to the sons of men -as far as we can work out.

From what we can see of volcanoes they release magma in a steady state that occasionally shocks us. The dirt erupted seldom goes more than a mile upwards but it can travel much greater distances sideways. This should tell us things but we fail to grasp them clearly at the moment.

Meanwhile with the venting a massive amount of water is released that does separate from the cryogenic debris. This goes beyond the tropopause often reaching the outer layers of the atmosphere mixing with the ionosphere of solar storms.

This stuff produces the blankets of Haar and drizzle that lasts for a day or two after the eruption falling as far away as Britain and western Europe and god knows how much further?

This stuff tends to look like this:

Peppering the North Atlantic with double the usual number of pressure centres (polar points)  that have very little pressure difference between the Lows and Highs.

At the same time the fonts separate to individual lines of cold fronts and warm fronts. The tendency after a major eruption is for the warm fronts to work up north into the Arctic where they cause storms that mislead so called experts that want to see things their way.

But it is late and I am cold so my bed beckons. Tomorrow I propose to show what the other sides of the coins bring and why, if god grants me time and room enough:

Significant Earthquakes, Past 30 Days

1. 6.322km ENE of Sungjibaegam, North Korea
   2017-09-03 03:30:01 UTC0.0 km
2. 5.314km E of Soda Springs, Idaho
   2017-09-02 23:56:52 UTC6.5 km
3. 6.372km NE of Muara Siberut, Indonesia
   2017-08-31 17:06:55 UTC45.1 km
4. 6.4107km NE of Lorengau, Papua New Guinea
   2017-08-27 04:17:50 UTC8.1 km
5. 6.4254km SE of Lambasa, Fiji
   2017-08-19 02:00:52 UTC544.0 km
6. 6.6North of Ascension Island
   2017-08-18 02:59:21 UTC10.0 km
7. 6.471km W of Bengkulu, Indonesia
   2017-08-13 03:08:10 UTC31.0 km
8. 6.22km E of Prinza, Philippines
   2017-08-11 05:28:25 UTC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g60ZCcquCl8

The Missing Link

Ten years ago a Category 3 hurricane struck New Orleans and 1800 people were killed. How did this happen to a country whose President was a Christian?

The idea that god would be responsible for allowing things like this to happen is preposterous if it were not for the rationale that he places governmental agencies at the strategic points for them to strut their stuff.

So is the fact the country voted for a chimpanzee proof of evolution or proof that everything is an act of god?

We have been building homes for over four thousand years. And we have been investing in flood defences for a considerable part of that time. In that time we have weathered storms and droughts as well as the other geo-phenomena and for the most part we have managed to keep going. So what happened then and there?

A category three is a massive storm. But it had been a larger one a few days earlier. From the indecision the President demonstrated during 9/11/2001 it is clear that he is not competent. So how did he manage to get elected twice?

The answer is absolutely clear:
Either god led him through it or god let him through it.

Just because a man claims to be led by god it doesn't follow that he will be a successful man, It is not enough to chant praises. According to the narrative, time and again,  god demonstrated that a lot more effort has to be shown before the desired outcome is achieved -even going as far as striking one of his servants for raising his hand up to save The Ark Of The Covenant!

If you believe that then the matter is explained. If you don't, won't or can't believe that, then the alternative is that there is no god and everything is the President's fault by definition.

Jesus (whether you accept the man or not) is reported to have described how to analyse these things. He is reported to have said that by their fruit you will know them. What is the fruit of George Bush's ten years of tenure?

1800 people dead in a few days. OK but shit does happen. What else happened?
What are the death tolls for other Presidents of the USA and does this produce a track record for pride in any religion?

What I was asking about is what sort of person may we judge a man to be?
I make grandiose claims to have broken a relatively simple code about how natural phenomena interacts with things on the surface of this planet. And if I get it wrong I may learn something from what I see following. Or I may not. I am not living in the path of a dangerous storm.

But like George Bush I am a slacker missing most of the key points of my education and rather too keen on the life of a lush. But no-one elected me in charge of a deadly weapon. And I certainly never got to declare an Holy War on women or children.

I hope I am not letting myself off the hook too easily. I ama foul mouthed man who knows better but decided to act like an arse-hole because I could. I was pushing to see what would happen if I did, and now I am worse off than I was just a few weeks ago.

If it is true that I do know a thing or two about sorcery, am I doing my best with it?

The deadliest hurricane to strike the United States since the Palm Beach-Lake Okeechobee hurricane of September 1928, Katrina is responsible for approximately 1200 reported deaths, including about 1000 in Louisiana and 200 in Mississippi. Seven additional deaths occurred in southern Florida. ??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMMj68ZcEew ??

Societies of Murder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMMj68ZcEew

Stop right here if you think that official charities are helpful,

Unmitigated shit

I just tuned Firefox to Startpage encryption then opened up Youtube without history and no other settings and found out that Facebook is running all the videos that ordinary people watch.

It was sad and amusing. A bit like watching CNN news.

I wish they would stop doing that

M 6.3 Explosion - 22km ENE of Sungjibaegam, North Korea

V
DYFI?VI
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER

Time

2017-09-03 03:30:01 (UTC)

Location

41.343°N 129.036°E

Depth

0.0 km

About a year or two after these things we get really cold winters. Maybe that will help the folks at Oroville but I wonder.

The NA-EFS

How did I lose track of this:
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html
for this:
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=1&RunTime=00&Type=pnm


(Yesterday was a bad day due to stress and close humid weather.)

To set the matter, they are both the same chart (pressure at sea level) but with different references. I have no idea what the red and blue dots represent but if they are pressure centres then we have a clear signal of volcanic eruptions

This Youtube clip is a climate scientist revealing what eruptions were like in the so called Devonian (as a Christian I have strong reservations about geological time fames.)
https://youtu.be/6XtIUx8bjeU?t=1325

A few minutes of eye opener will bring us back to the point about volcanoes:
https://youtu.be/6XtIUx8bjeU?t=1619 so much for that, I tend to go to sleep over statistics. What makes them real is that we have just had and are having quite an epic run of supersaturation. This is on the European side of the Atlantic where fall out from Pacific eruptions rend to arrive at sea level.

This stuff is a blanket of super-cool steam that arrives as drizzle or whatever the description is if it is a little harder, as it is this afternoon of Tuesday the 5th of September. This is the first decent rain we have had in a while and it follows a (by British standards) warm muggy Monday.

So what happened?
Obviously the blanket stopped any heat from penetrating the clouds. It did not stop the clouds from falling though. So was it a cooling breeze?

No.
Anticyclonic weather will not reach the ground without compression and so the cold weather is perceived as hot. This condition tends to bring thunder as the air masses mix. But the sultry Monday was due to no mixing taking place (at least locally to me. Instead we had an humid stressful afternoon.

This blogging business is hard work for me now. I used to get so much pleasure out of it but now it is a struggle. I can never recall where I put my keys. Maybe I should try an alternative to qwerty or get someone to show me how to send video.

Maybe I should draw you a picture but you would fare better looking it up for yourselveves:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1504569600


On Tuesday, 5 September 2017 19:11:03 UTC+1, avag...@gmail.com  wrote:
> With Irma we have a second look at NOAA / science vs politicians ...
>
> see fake news.com ?

That stuff is far from the holistic approach recommended. Trumpets sound loud alrums -listen what they say. That walking back from Sunday night, shit gets in the way.