Glowballs

News to me: 

https://youtu.be/-Laaq44SDgg?t=183

Michael McNeil

It is a crime to fabricate data from freedom of information sources? 

Michael Mann is looking at service at a state penitentiary. NASA is also guilty of fabricating data on Global Warming.

Singularities

With increases of orders of magnitude probability moves toward certainty This is the only useful result of using statistics in Meteorology. They point out to the interested a phenomenon called anomalies.

For the amateur second guessing god only presents a challenge if he makes public forecasts. An amateur only has himself to blame for failure and generally nobody gets hurt. I do my best because I like being right and it never gets tiring.

The development at 140 degrees East at 901millibars does not appear unusual.

And to be fair it is not that unusual these days. It is likely to become a dangerous situation as it moves eastwards, as it is likely to be assimilated into an anticyclone in North America. The phenomenon is then likely to grow significantly and all creatures are at risk.

What is even more interesting are the associated phenomena that appear with such events. They can develop into behemoths as with leviathans such things can fail to follow through for reasons that are not immediately obvious (to most at least.) A degree of difficulty with the sequence and consequences is the delay due to the sizes involved.

How does one prove that a relatively small Low in the middle of the Pacific is a part of  the situation that follows some week or more later?

How integral it is can only be explained when it occurs every time. Amd it is generally best to just ignore arguments about coincdenta They tend to be as useful as fame news broadcasts.

I am reminded of the consequences for the musician Bob Dylan when he introduced electric guitars to his own folk music. Traditionalists became irrational in the same mode as the imbecile socialists in that ridiculous college "Evergreen" but it takes all sorts.

What can happen if conditions favour tornadic weather  is that a river of air is trapped in Tornado Alley is volcanic eruptions and solar flares but of course there is a string of possibilities that tend to develop instead. All of which have rational explanations. None the less such considerable numbers of these anomalies are archived with enough documentation to allow confirmation of all the permutations.

Take for example the fallacy that the Arctic ice cover is shrinking due to carbondioxide levels. What is actually happening is that storms (which are rare in the Arctic) are piling the ice into smaller areas giving the credulous the impression of shrinkage and allowing the foolish to say the foolish.

It is easy to see the events taking place if you have the patience to look at facts. But Global warmists are not particularly reasonable any more than they are sensible.

It is not worth bothering them.

Behemoth

They flee from me that sometime did me seek, with naked foot, stalking in my chamber. I have seen them gentle, tame and meek that now are wild and do not remember that sometimes they put themselves in danger to take bread at my hand.
And now they range seeking busily, with a continual change.

Earlier today I was watching video of old men who suffered trauma (PTSD)

Behemoth is a strange name. Now I have had a stroke I realise the meaning of stress and of disorder. I can not remember how to type; a severe malfunction for a writer.

But we are not discussing my problems. 

Millenniums ago, when men discovered a need to defend themselves from creatures that would kill them if thy became annoyed, mankind designed spears and other weapons. The gods were unable to outlaw such things and so Tumult was born.

Violent disorder ranged for a while, it must have been chaos until god called an halt to it.

A man called Tubal Cain invented devices to slay creatures and became a famous warrior a descendant of his became the first globalist and his followers (you can imagine how it must have happened; innocently enough, at first) became enslaved in the same manner that mass media is enslaving mankind today.

Damn but typing is hard work, back later...

I do not know what tumult means though I am so very much aware.
What calls are made and such as these that cut me deft and slow to my knees.
Let us be friends and I will kill you for the same to me paid heed.

Smoothness and vapour lock

I am not certain of the meanings of the terms: Smoothness and Vapour Lock so I am relying on whatever you can follow and offer generalities. I am considering a candle  burning in perfect calm; for which you need to look for  Laminar flow  videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RdQWyqAUdg

With no cross-wind the flow is forced in equal directions with perfect balance. When the temperatures become equal the pressure lacks flow. Instead of having to follow the fluid supply, the burning takes place as and when the warmest surface oxidises.

With large volumes this is audible. The smooth flow of well  mixed gas is a steady roar. But the whipping turbulence can lead to explosive vapour lock. This is what happens with a storm.

In most storms the cross winds wash out the build up of energy but occasional calms occur that allow a frustum to cap off a cell. This seldom builds to dangerous levels but rare coincidenta allows extremes levels to build. Such hurricane forces are extremely rare and seldom last more than a day or so. Kenneth blew out as soon as it reached a category four energy level, with wind speeds of 115 knots, as these things are literally huge drains.

(Also maintaining safety levels of design; tropical storms are relatively minor local events, seldom reaching a diameter of a few hundred miles.) Such leviathans are the starting points of god's own continuum. Compared to the extents of the behemoths of colder climates it should amaze us indefinitely to times indefinite that the planet is such safe hands.

With the shunt that closes these vents we should be looking out for some sort of reciprocation. And we find inevitable signals resounding across the board. (Or did you imagine that god's own instruments are silent witnesses to his majesty?)

Out at sea the lingering signal that a leviathan has died is presented as a lozenge shaped calm of brine cast off from the huge heat engine and shortly afterwards, in the resultant seiche you will find the traces of siesmic disturbance.

http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/eventlist/index.phtml?region=Africa&lon=-13.63&lat=-1.08

With the analogy of the flickering candle there is a syncopation this is at the point of balance where the temperatures and pressures cause a beating effect. The resonance in huge systems are called swarms.

The Centre of the World

When I unwittingly discovered the hexagonal nature of criticality, decades ago, I came up with the problem of why the Met Office was so gifted as the heart of the Empire. All my work has, perforce, been empirical coincidentally. I think this is why I may have been chosen, as much as for my autistic ability to stick with a problem I know is wrong and attempt to right it, come what may.

I can't claim genius in knowing what is startlingly obvious when it happens that I started out as totally ignorant and just asked god to fill in the pieces for me. Sitting in the pissoir just now I was contemplating my said ignorance, when it occurred to me that we had not had a Blocking High with Noru.
I had gone to bed last night wondering why we had not had a Blocking Low.

A Block at sea level occurs, in the Atlantic, whenever we have a Tropical Storm. If the relevant storm or storms are insignificant,that is never develop wind speeds above Category 3, the teleconnection in the North Atlantic remains a Blocking Low.

Usually this is a stuck weather pattern that sits in the middle of the Atlantic growing and diminishing as the opposite number in the Indian or Pacific tropics, for the duration of the hurricane or typhoon. It would seem with this recent series that such drama can not take place when the originals are strung out all along the tropics. This has been a first for me and now, I produce the missing piece:

When a tropical storm reaches a category 4 or 5 the Blocked situation reaches Blocking High. I am ill and getting old; all I wondered about, for most of this last spell was when will the volcano erupt? and will it be an earthquake instead? I forgot the important stuff:

The Blocking. The stuck system is obviously a low.

I paid no more attention to it than that. All the ancillary polar points just meant good weather -as we all know by now.

I missed Noru's development as a Blocking High in the North Atlantic because I wasn't looking for it.

See how easily a mere mortal becomes misguided, looking to fulfil his own desires?

I wanted to see the development of the significant volcanic eruption signal.

When I should have been looking for the Blocking High. And here we have the reason for the depression that set poor FitzRoy in the barber's chair.

He must have gone nuts with depression trying to make all the pieces fit. I doubt that he ever could have tumbled on the root cause of criticality, poor devil.

The loneliness of command followed him into retirement. I would take back all I have learned just to read it in a text book and acknowledge Admiral FitzRoy as le expert nonpareil.

Too bad. But anyway, this is Noru out to t+120 but it will not be a Tropical Storm past the ninth:

At least it all affords a chance for my numerous fan or even fans? to watch the display evolve. And maybe explain why it is smaller storms that provide the larger earthquakes.

So now do I go back to bed or rush out to meet the day?

Still waiting for the bang

I get serious brain farts when a volcanic eruption occurs. Not the casual chemistry of fish food but that all out high explosive stuff. I wondered what happened on Monday last (31 July 2017) but maybe the events were not of the right calibre.

Or maybe my head was too far stuck up the back end of my utilities company. I switched to the cheapest cover I could find about an year ago. One that seeks out dimmos who only post of Facileburk for that is where they house their servers.

After losing my wallet and the various cards in it I waited for Utilitia to come back to me with some replacements. HSBC the most egregiously corrupt bank in Britain got me a card in a week. (Yes I know that is too long but what could I do?)

When I finally ran out of electricity I started making demands on their Facebook page. All very highly charged and uncChrist-like. But people who screw little people deserve no mercy.; so don't read this as an apology to the bastards.

They eventually sent me my card numbers and offered me free replacements for £6:oo a pop. They can feck off!!

If I ever get my house tidy I am going to get a new service. No hurry, now that I got Visa to service the buggers. (First time HSBC ever came back to me to make me sign an areyousureyouknowwhatyouredoing clause. They must have had complaints from everybody else?)

But back at Hartshill Towers I have no more worries about the leccy, just no idea what is going on with the horsemen. I was looking forward to the high I generally get with dysfunction. It pays for the lack of sleep and other pain. And I like the clear faculty for writing poems. Or rhymes at least. (I think of them as doggerel.) But hell, they are fun to write.

I even boned up on a lot of music that I like writing to. And nothing happened. It should have:

You can clearly see volcanoes on this horizon can't you?
This was Saturday the 29th July.

Sunday the 30th; something went bump.

And was followed by swarms.
 

Which developed a classical "Next" on the bottom left. A standard tell for volcanic activity is the development of swarms but they also take place at the much quieter level that doesn't make the lists. The North Atlantic chart is a genus rather than species locator.

In case you missed it; we had some 7 or 8 tropical storms this week or so:

Hurricane-4 FERNANDA  12-22 JUL
Tropical Storm GREG  17-26 JUL  
Tropical Depression EIGHT_ 18-20 JUL
Hurricane-2 HILARY  21-30 JUL  
Hurricane-1 IRWIN  22 JUL-01 AUG In the American (East) Pacific and:

Super Typhoon-5 NORU  20 JUL-04 AUG - still  active
Tropical Storm KULAP  21-26 JUL
Tropical Storm ROKE  21-22 JUL
Tropical Storm SONCA  21-25 JUL
Typhoon-1 NESAT  26-30 JUL
Tropical Storm HAITANG  28-31 JUL
Tropical Storm NALGAE  01-04 AUG in the Asian (West) Pacific.
Plus Emily:
Tropical Storm SIX  31-31 JUL

How many is that?
Tornadoes in the USA were absent but between these and the last batch of
storms there was quite a snowfall in New Zealand.

It is time to mention the effect that the solar system has on the planets when the declinations of the said planets are blow earth's equator.

I can only point to the Wiggins storm for this:

Ezekiel Stone Wiggins was a philosopher who live in the heroic age of meteorology, where for such heroes, the eyes of cyclones (and anticyclones) were actually considered meteoric. This is when the term comes from. FitzRoy had no time for Astrology and the irascible bsd gave the buggers short shrift whatever short shrifts are before cutting his throat (an equitable pass-time  for Captains in the Royal Navy once they spent all their money.)

Wiggins OTOH accepted all science for what it revealed without claiming to understand just how it worked:

A series of lesser eruptions began on May 20, 1883. The volcano released huge plumes of steam and ash lasting until late August.^[22] On August 27 a series of four huge explosions almost entirely destroyed the island. The explosions were so violent that they were heard 3,110 km (1,930 mi) away in Perth, Western Australia, and the island of Rodrigues near Mauritius, 4,800 km (3,000 mi) away.^[4] The pressure wave from the final explosion was recorded on barographs around the world. Several barographs recorded the wave seven times over the course of five days: four times with the wave travelling away from the volcano to its antipodal point, and three times travelling back to the volcano.^[21]:63 Hence, the wave rounded the globe three and a half times. Ash was propelled to a height of 80 km (50 mi).

I couldn't find the tract Wiggins produced with the forecast for the storms that turned out to be Kratakatoa blowing up. And seeing the ephemeris for the first time depicted in a more up to date almanac it appears that I made a mistake about the declinations he gave.

So we all learns something every day!
Bugger it!

August Planetary positions

The Solar System:

The inner planets:

Interesting angles on the 1st:

Mars and Earth were lined up with Venus on the quarter and is Mercury at 120 degrees?
And then what happened?

9 August 2017

At the moment I have nothing to report until tomorrow and even then it will be most of the week before it clarifies. A deep low has come in from the Indian ocean and built a large system about 80 degrees East. As we follow it around we can guess more about it.

You can keep up with it youself in case I can't:
BoM Southern Hemisphere

Noru is forecast to last until the 9th as a significant storm:

http://mkwc2.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/modelsanim.cgi?model=gfs&domain=npac&param=winds&orient=horiz&level=sfc&modeltime=2017080200&gfsanimduration=384&banner=mkwc&imgsize=med&animtype=flash

At which time it's outriders also disappear. This is not to say they are refraining from crossing the Pacific by then, as they become defunct on the Asian side of things.

We should be looking for a significant mark-up from whatever by the 9th and later on from pastures new as they all cross the Pacific.

And much later again as they both leave North America and cross the Atlantic -if they do, by then of course we might well see the renewal of tornadoes in the USA.

If they do cross the Atlantic that is, I expect them to but they may leave through Asia to the Arctic and of course a critical state of change may wipe them off the face of the earth. (Volcanoes and earthquakes are where the weather goes to die.)

"Volcanoes and earthquakes are where the weather goes to die." Surely I can't be the only person to have wondered what happens to the weather after it gets old?

Hell!
I even wonder where my comments section went to die. I've just clobbered my cookies with ghost script maybe that is where. All I have left to wonder about until the 9th is what is making this site report in Pacific time. Maybe I can get some housework done while I find out?

Wife wanted.

Wow I got six views if I read the stats correctly . Surely nobody was interested in the personals?

I should advertise more widely. (No  I don't mean wisely, the place is a mess.)

Weird

I just had the weirdest dream. I was looking at the images of earthquakes on this page:


All the older images had disappeared leaving just a strikingly unusual series to the south east of the chart.

Initially when I got up and opened the page I found the most south-easterly image was the one near the Weddell Sea at the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (M 5.1) -then when I moved the cursor to get a highlight of one of the epicentres the image changed to a smaller one where the most south-easterly was Ndoi in Fiji.

Furthermore the diagramme shows the erroneous plate theory as lines and they reminded me of what I found most difficult to comprehend in the dream. The series of epicentres were showing as some sort of image of "sparks" pink and yellow cartouches with a red smaller quake off to the north west of the region.

The plate graphics reminded me of the dichotomy. Oddly as I was wondering about all that it struck me that typhoon Moru was nearing its end and we don't have long to wait to see what this will do:

Super Typhoon Noru
On July 30, when Category 5 storm could ultimately head toward mainland Japan, but not for several days.

Last week, Noru had a sibling Tropical Storm Kulap appearing to move in tandem with Noru in a dance known as the “Fujiwhara effect.” The phenomenon occurs when two cyclones are close enough to each other that they both rotate around a common center.


[A major indicator of a massive coming eruption forecast.]

“This often occurs. Many rotating systems—not just named storms—will tend to rotate around a common center, with the stronger system pulling the weaker one toward it. Occasionally the two systems can merge, though that never happened with Kulap and Noru.

So what's it going to be?
I don't expect to make any sense of a dream they tend to co-operate with whatever you wish to believe and are utterly deceptive. I just thought it was interesting enough to want to share. (Usually when you move in your sleep the dream is dislodged and you lose focus with them but this one remains clear even now.)

It looks like all three are still dancing after the resurrection:

I think I am going to stop forecasting now and just enjoy watching dastardly developments as the horses ride to destruction. God help us help them!

Ringing ringing raining

Ringing, ringing, raining
Hear my ears complaining
And Bernard Chouet says he did not do it.

Another one for the busy wife and mother:
How do you bite a biscuit into a shape like England and Wales?

Always allowing that north of Carlisle was built on a later time frame (going by the extinct super-volcano in the north of Scotland and the lines of most resistance further south.)

First butter your rice cake (use Welsh salted butter for just the right amount of salt and make a flask of tea as they are so moreish that you will be tempted to eat an whole pack.)

Simply eat around the perimeter, from side to side until you learn how many bites it takes to get the best outline your teeth allow.

Once you have established it is relatively easy to perform the same engineering design repetitively, you must own that there may be a feasible geo-engineering hazard to the weather, volcanoes and earthquakes that will enable you to go macro.

It will turn out that like Australia the initial concept of storm damage causing things in fits and starts must mirror the evidence presented by the patterning of Australia's coastline for which see the essays on Terror Australis.

So now match up whatever presentations fashioned after Lyell et al, you can find what it is that actually tells you how the angels did it:

Lyell's Uniformitarianism vss Catastrophism and Neptunism and finally Weggeners Plate Tectonics:

If I were to submerse myself in reading all that ancient tosh, I would not live to see to what it is that I am capable of deciphering for myself. But these volumes by Hutton and all the revered first experts still exist in mainstream geology as variants to their theories are amended and reworked.

Lyell, following deistic traditions, favoured an indefinitely long age for the earth, despite geological evidence suggesting an old but finite age.

What geological evidence might that be?

Catastrophism held that geological epochs had ended with violent and sudden natural catastrophes. Plants and animals in those parts were killed off and replaced new forms defining geological strata.

A moment's logic dictates that enough of a species would survive elsewhere to reproduce in time for continuing successful reproduction until they could find alternative accommodation.

How dumb can I get?

I thought this was a chart of presently erupting volcanoes, with the energy estimates given as the size of their circles. I already knew that it is impossible to estimate the energy of a volcanoes output at any one time without a lot of study. I have only just realised the chart is the list of advertised volcano tours organised by Volcano Dicovery.